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Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

12
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U.S. Democracy Threat Index
2 comments
11 forecasters

Will U.S. Congress pass new limits on early voting, absentee voting, or voter registration in the following years?

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3 forecasters

Will a U.S. federal or state court prevent certification of any statewide election result in the following years because of fraud?

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2 forecasters

Will a U.S. state legislative or congressional map be used for the following general elections with a total population deviation between districts of ≥12%?

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2 forecasters

Will a U.S. federal or state court prevent certification of any statewide election result in the following years because of foreign interference?

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6 forecasters

Will an opposing-party authority block or remove a major-party nominee for statewide office from the U.S. general-election ballot in the following years?

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4 forecasters

In the following U.S. presidential elections, will any state fail to submit a slate of electoral votes to Congress by the safe harbor deadline?

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4 forecasters

Will two or more losing major-party candidates for governor or U.S. Senator in competitive races refuse to concede defeat in the following general elections?

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4 forecasters

Will the losing major-party candidate in the following U.S. presidential elections refuse to concede defeat before electors meet?

16 comments
38 forecasters

Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states?

Texasresult: Yes
Floridaresult: Yes
Missouriresult: Yes