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US Democracy Index

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Which party's nominee will win the 2028 US presidential election?

Democratic Party52.5%

Republican Party47.4%

Other0.1%

0 comments

3 forecasters

What will be the Democratic candidate's Electoral College margin in the 2028 US presidential election?

Current estimate

15.4 votes

1 comment

36 forecasters

In Louisiana v. Callais, will SCOTUS strike down Louisiana’s two majority-Black districts, restoring a GOP-leaning map?

81%chance

Key Factors

Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

6 6 comments

U.S. Democracy Threat Index

38 comments

64 forecasters

What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Democraticresult: 48.3242

Republicanresult: 49.79607

Greenresult: 0.555306

16 comments

38 forecasters

Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states?

Texasresult: Yes

Floridaresult: Yes

Missouriresult: Yes

15 comments

135 forecasters

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

54%chance

10 comments

29 forecasters

Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states?

Wisconsinresult: Yes

New Mexicoresult: Yes

Montanaresult: Yes

0 comments

11 forecasters

In the following U.S. presidential elections, will any state fail to submit a slate of electoral votes to Congress by the safe harbor deadline?

1 comment

37 forecasters

Will a U.S. state legislative or congressional map be used for the following general elections with a total population deviation between districts of ≥12%?