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Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

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U.S. Democracy Threat Index

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4 forecasters

Will a U.S. state legislative or congressional map be used for the following general elections with a total population deviation between districts of ≥12%?

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2 forecasters

Will California's Proposition 50 (allowing redistricting of House seats) pass in the 2025 election?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 3 days

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12 forecasters

Will U.S. Congress pass new limits on early voting, absentee voting, or voter registration in the following years?

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7 forecasters

Will a U.S. federal or state court prevent certification of any statewide election result in the following years because of foreign interference?

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7 forecasters

How will Bright Line Watch experts rate US democracy on a 0-100 scale at the end of the following years?

202551.7

202649.6

202749

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5 forecasters

Will three or more competitive Senate or governor races hold no general election debates in the following years?

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9 forecasters

Will an opposing-party authority block or remove a major-party nominee for statewide office from the U.S. general-election ballot in the following years?

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6 forecasters

Will a U.S. federal or state court prevent certification of any statewide election result in the following years because of fraud?

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5 forecasters

Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

Will a U.S. state legislative or congressional map be used for the following general elections with a total population deviation between districts of ≥12%?

Will California's Proposition 50 (allowing redistricting of House seats) pass in the 2025 election?

Will U.S. Congress pass new limits on early voting, absentee voting, or voter registration in the following years?

Will a U.S. federal or state court prevent certification of any statewide election result in the following years because of foreign interference?

How will Bright Line Watch experts rate US democracy on a 0-100 scale at the end of the following years?

Will three or more competitive Senate or governor races hold no general election debates in the following years?

Will an opposing-party authority block or remove a major-party nominee for statewide office from the U.S. general-election ballot in the following years?

Will a U.S. federal or state court prevent certification of any statewide election result in the following years because of fraud?

Will the U.S. House maps for the following years give any major party an efficiency-gap advantage of ≥20 seats nationwide?

Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

Will a U.S. state legislative or congressional map be used for the following general elections with a total population deviation between districts of ≥12%?

Will California's Proposition 50 (allowing redistricting of House seats) pass in the 2025 election?

Will U.S. Congress pass new limits on early voting, absentee voting, or voter registration in the following years?

Will a U.S. federal or state court prevent certification of any statewide election result in the following years because of foreign interference?

How will Bright Line Watch experts rate US democracy on a 0-100 scale at the end of the following years?

Will three or more competitive Senate or governor races hold no general election debates in the following years?

Will an opposing-party authority block or remove a major-party nominee for statewide office from the U.S. general-election ballot in the following years?

Will a U.S. federal or state court prevent certification of any statewide election result in the following years because of fraud?

Will the U.S. House maps for the following years give any major party an efficiency-gap advantage of ≥20 seats nationwide?