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Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

12
0 comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index
2 comments
11 forecasters

Will U.S. Congress pass new limits on early voting, absentee voting, or voter registration in the following years?

0 comments
2 forecasters

Will a U.S. state legislative or congressional map be used for the following general elections with a total population deviation between districts of ≥12%?

0 comments
4 forecasters

Will the U.S. House maps for the following years give any major party an efficiency-gap advantage of ≥20 seats nationwide?

0 comments
4 forecasters

In the following U.S. presidential elections, will any state fail to submit a slate of electoral votes to Congress by the safe harbor deadline?

0 comments
4 forecasters

Will two or more losing major-party candidates for governor or U.S. Senator in competitive races refuse to concede defeat in the following general elections?

0 comments
6 forecasters

Will an opposing-party authority block or remove a major-party nominee for statewide office from the U.S. general-election ballot in the following years?

82 comments
235 forecasters

If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Donald Trump (R)result: Yes
Kamala Harris (D)result: No
Gavin Newsom (D)Annulled
122 comments
168 forecasters

[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal?

Mike Johnson (R)result: Yes
Kevin Hern (R)Annulled
Steve Scalise (R)result: No
0 comments
125 forecasters

Will the House of Representatives seat a legislator who was not certified as the winner of their election before July 1, 2027?

10%chance
5% this week