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2
comments
17
forecasters
What will be the Republican advantage (or disadvantage) vs Democrats in the House of Representatives after the 2026 elections?
Current estimate
-9.61 seats
122
comments
168
forecasters
[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal?
Mike Johnson (R)
result:
Yes
Kevin Hern (R)
Annulled
Steve Scalise (R)
result:
No
18 others
condition
In Louisiana v. Callais, will SCOTUS rule that Louisiana's map with two majority-Black districts is illegal?
16
forecasters
if yes
if no
What will be the Republican advantage (or disadvantage) vs Democrats in the House of Representatives after the 2026 elections?
-4.96
What will be the Republican advantage (or disadvantage) vs Democrats in the House of Representatives after the 2026 elections?
-5.68
0
comments
16
16
forecasters
POTUS Predictions
82
comments
235
forecasters
If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Donald Trump (R)
result:
Yes
Kamala Harris (D)
result:
No
Gavin Newsom (D)
Annulled
17 others
Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index
17
6
6
comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index
1
comment
34
forecasters
In Louisiana v. Callais, will SCOTUS rule that Louisiana's map with two majority-Black districts is illegal?
81%
chance
Key Factors
Roberts and Kavanaugh's stance on race policies
Ambivalence in oral arguments by Roberts and Barrett
Alexander v. South Carolina NAACP (2024)
0
comments
90
forecasters
Who will win the Texas 18th district special election?
Amanda Edwards
31.8%
Christian Menefee
31.2%
Jolanda Jones
16.5%
4 others
20%
This question is closed for forecasting.
73
comments
314
forecasters
Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections?
Democrat Senate, Rep House
result:
Yes
Republican Senate & House
result:
No
Republican Senate, Dem House
result:
No
1 other
75
comments
107
forecasters
[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress?
Kevin McCarthy (R)
result:
Yes
Elise Stefanik (R)
result:
No
Donald Trump (R)
result:
No
10 others
38
comments
64
forecasters
What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Democratic
result:
48.3242
Republican
result:
49.79607
Green
result:
0.555306
3 others
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