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0
comments
3
forecasters
Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 US Senate election in the following states?
Georgia
Upcoming
Iowa
Upcoming
Maine
Upcoming
6 others
122
comments
168
forecasters
[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal?
Mike Johnson (R)
result:
Yes
Kevin Hern (R)
Annulled
Steve Scalise (R)
result:
No
18 others
2
comments
17
forecasters
What will be the Republican advantage (or disadvantage) vs Democrats in the House of Representatives after the 2026 elections?
Current estimate
-9.61 seats
condition
In Louisiana v. Callais, will SCOTUS rule that Louisiana's map with two majority-Black districts is illegal?
18
forecasters
if yes
if no
What will be the Republican advantage (or disadvantage) vs Democrats in the House of Representatives after the 2026 elections?
-4.71
What will be the Republican advantage (or disadvantage) vs Democrats in the House of Representatives after the 2026 elections?
-5.8
0
comments
18
18
forecasters
POTUS Predictions
82
comments
235
forecasters
If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Donald Trump (R)
result:
Yes
Kamala Harris (D)
result:
No
Gavin Newsom (D)
Annulled
17 others
18
comments
452
forecasters
Which party will hold the most seats in the US House of Representatives after the 2026 elections?
Democrats
69.9%
Republicans
30%
Other
0.1%
Key Factors
Spreading of Deepfakes
California Prop 50 adds 3-5 seats for Democrats
Corn Gene Modification
Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index
17
6
6
comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index
0
comments
90
forecasters
Who will win the Texas 18th district special election?
Amanda Edwards
31.8%
Christian Menefee
31.2%
Jolanda Jones
16.5%
4 others
20%
This question is closed for forecasting.
1
comment
34
forecasters
In Louisiana v. Callais, will SCOTUS rule that Louisiana's map with two majority-Black districts is illegal?
81%
chance
Key Factors
Roberts and Kavanaugh's stance on race policies
Ambivalence in oral arguments by Roberts and Barrett
Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard (2023)
73
comments
314
forecasters
Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections?
Democrat Senate, Rep House
result:
Yes
Republican Senate & House
result:
No
Republican Senate, Dem House
result:
No
1 other
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