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US Democracy Index

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Will two or more losing major-party candidates for governor or U.S. Senator in competitive races refuse to concede defeat in the following general elections?

1 comment

15 forecasters

What will be the Republican advantage (or disadvantage) vs Democrats in the House of Representatives after the 2026 elections?

Current estimate

-8.87 seats

condition

In Louisiana v. Callais, will SCOTUS rule that Louisiana's map with two majority-Black districts is illegal?

10 forecasters

if yes

if no

What will be the Republican advantage (or disadvantage) vs Democrats in the House of Representatives after the 2026 elections?

-3.13

What will be the Republican advantage (or disadvantage) vs Democrats in the House of Representatives after the 2026 elections?

-3.23

0 comments

10 forecasters

POTUS Predictions

122 comments

168 forecasters

[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal?

Mike Johnson (R)result: Yes

Kevin Hern (R)Annulled

Steve Scalise (R)result: No

5 comments

66 forecasters

When will Adelita Grijalva be sworn in?

Current estimate

>15 Nov 2025 18:00

Key Factors

73 comments

314 forecasters

Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections?

Democrat Senate, Rep Houseresult: Yes

Republican Senate & Houseresult: No

Republican Senate, Dem Houseresult: No

38 comments

64 forecasters

What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Democraticresult: 48.3242

Republicanresult: 49.79607

Greenresult: 0.555306

1 comment

32 forecasters

In Louisiana v. Callais, will SCOTUS rule that Louisiana's map with two majority-Black districts is illegal?

80%chance

5% this week

Key Factors

16 comments

38 forecasters

Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states?

Texasresult: Yes

Floridaresult: Yes

Missouriresult: Yes

0 comments

90 forecasters

Who will win the Texas 18th district special election?

Amanda Edwards31.8%

Christian Menefee31.2%

Jolanda Jones16.5%

This question is closed for forecasting.