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US Democracy Index

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Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?

0 comments

15 forecasters

Will the losing major-party candidate in the following U.S. presidential elections refuse to concede defeat before electors meet?

1 comment

13 forecasters

Which party's nominee will win the 2028 US presidential election?

Democratic Party52.5%

Republican Party47.4%

Other0.1%

418 comments

1.2k forecasters

Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Donald Trumpresult: Yes

Nikki Haleyresult: No

Ron DeSantisresult: No

3.9k comments

3.6k forecasters

Who will be elected US President in 2024?

Donald Trumpresult: Yes

Gretchen Whitmerresult: No

Pete Buttigiegresult: No

82 comments

235 forecasters

If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Donald Trump (R)result: Yes

Kamala Harris (D)result: No

Gavin Newsom (D)Annulled

14 comments

16 forecasters

What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024?

Alaskaresult: 13.1

Iowaresult: 13.2

Ohioresult: 11.1

584 comments

1.2k forecasters

Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Kamala Harrisresult: Yes

Joe Bidenresult: No

Gavin Newsomresult: No

60 comments

30 forecasters

In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average?

238 comments

223 forecasters

Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day?

J.D. Vanceresult: Yes

Vivek Ramaswamyresult: No

Donald Trump Jr.result: No