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418
comments
1.2k
forecasters
Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Donald Trump
result:
Yes
Nikki Haley
result:
No
Ron DeSantis
result:
No
14 others
Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index
16
6
6
comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index
82
comments
235
forecasters
If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Donald Trump (R)
result:
Yes
Kamala Harris (D)
result:
No
Gavin Newsom (D)
Annulled
17 others
584
comments
1.2k
forecasters
Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Kamala Harris
result:
Yes
Joe Biden
result:
No
Gavin Newsom
result:
No
13 others
3.9k
comments
3.6k
forecasters
Who will be elected US President in 2024?
Donald Trump
result:
Yes
Gretchen Whitmer
result:
No
Pete Buttigieg
result:
No
17 others
143
comments
212
forecasters
Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)?
Tim Walz
result:
Yes
Gina Raimondo
result:
No
Jeff Jackson
result:
No
16 others
14
comments
36
forecasters
Will a prominent Democratic politician seek asylum abroad before January 20, 2029?
10%
chance
238
comments
223
forecasters
Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day?
J.D. Vance
result:
Yes
Vivek Ramaswamy
result:
No
Donald Trump Jr.
result:
No
26 others
0
comments
48
forecasters
Will the losing major-party candidate in the following U.S. presidential elections refuse to concede defeat before electors meet?
30
comments
123
forecasters
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2029?
5%
chance
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