How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Jun 1 - Jun 12)-0.0451 pp (-3.06 - 2.8)0 comments9191 forecasters-0.0451 pp (-3.06 - 2.8)
Will the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield exceed 7% for at least 30 consecutive days before 2030?20% chance33 comments88 forecasters20%chance
Will the US stock market crash by more than 10% in any 5-day trading period before 2027?41.4% chance233 comments4444 forecasters41.5%chance
Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026?167676 comments8585 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 34.00% on 2026-04-11 for the Metaculus question "Will Anthropic be a designated supply chain risk on May 1, 2026?"?result: yes9191 comments9292 forecastersResolvedYes
Will a U.S. cabinet agency award a $100m firm benefit after a $1m expenditure to a group or cryptocurrency linked to the president in the following years?133 comments9191 forecasters
Will the USD fraction of allocated global foreign exchange currencies be below 50% before the following years?877 comments4343 forecasters
Will a top-5 US insurer publicly announce before 2028 that they will exclude coverage for AI systems lacking human override capabilities?55% chance233 comments7676 forecasters55%chance
Before 2030, will traditional banks offer regulated DeFi yield products, with consumer protections?44% chance122 comments8080 forecasters44%chance
Will the US dollar continuously remain >50% of global foreign currency exchange reserves through Q3 2028?75% chance855 comments391391 forecasters75%chance
Will federal legislation be passed before the 2026 midterm elections offering immunity to banks providing financial services to legal marijuana businesses?5.8% chance211 comment3636 forecasters5.8%chance
Before 2030, will a foundation-model-based AI system make $50M in realized profits from not more than $1M of traditional investments and trades?61.8% chance22 comments2323 forecasters61.8%chance
Will the community prediction be higher than 43.00% on 2026-03-26 for the Metaculus question "Will Anthropic be a designated supply chain risk on May 1, 2026?"?result: no11 comment9797 forecastersResolvedNo
Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025?result: no1144 comments7373 forecastersResolvedNo
Will Polymarket "Holding Rewards" rate fall below 4% before 2028?50% chance22 comments1111 forecasters50%chance
[Short Fuse] Will the total credit extended through all Fed liquidity facilities exceed $500 billion for any week before May 2023?result: no71111 comments3737 forecastersResolvedNo
Will Revolut officially announce it is launching a stablecoin, before January 1, 2025?result: no9090 comments3131 forecastersResolvedNo
Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?40% chance1155 comments4545 forecasters40%chance
Before 2032, will a G7 central bank or finance ministry credit an AI forecasting system as a key reason for a major preemptive policy action to avert a potential economic crisis or instability?20% chance11010 comments7676 forecasters20%chance