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US Democracy Index

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Will the community prediction be higher than 75.00% on 2025-11-08 for the Metaculus question "Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?"?

58.6%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

3 comments

51 forecasters

Will the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) draw from a dollar swap line with the US government before January 1, 2026?

80%chance

13% this week

0 comments

100 forecasters

On December 31, 2025, will Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto as a payment?

25%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

43 forecasters

Before December 1, 2025, how many banks will be added to the FDIC's Failed Bank List?

Current estimate

0.261 banks

1 comment

15 forecasters

Will the US stock market crash by more than 10% in any 5-day trading period before January 1, 2027?

50%chance

12 comments

29 forecasters

What Portion of Official Currency Reserve (COFER) will be Chinese Yuan in Q4 of 2031 according to the IMF?

Current estimate

15.1%

2 comments

18 forecasters

Will the US stock market go down by more than 5% in any week in the 4th quarter of 2025?

45%chance

73 comments

117 forecasters

Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026?

Sam Bankman-Friedresult: Yes

Caroline Ellisonresult: Yes

Gary Wangresult: Yes

Market Pulse 25Q4 Opens

5 5 comments

Market Pulse Challenge 25Q4

5 comments

6 forecasters

When will Polymarket launch a token?

Current estimate

28 Feb 2026