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Forecasting & commenting winners of the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup

17 17 comments

Metaculus Cup Summer 2025

Suggest questions for the Metaculus Cup

43 43 comments

Metaculus Cup Fall 2025

4 comments

33 forecasters

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

30%chance

10% this week

32 comments

95 forecasters

Will third countries directly intervene in the Israel-Gaza War before July 2024?

IranAnnulled

LebanonAnnulled

Saudi ArabiaAnnulled

condition

31 forecasters

The Taiwan Tinderbox

1 comment

47 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 66.00% on 2025-08-30 for the Metaculus question 'Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?'?

resultYes

1 comment

8 forecasters

Will China and India ratify a bilateral treaty addressing territorial boundaries between the two nations before 2029?

61%chance

375 comments

861 forecasters

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

21 comments

48 forecasters

Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024?

resultYes

40 comments

26 forecasters

Which countries will invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if it's invoked before 2040?

PolandAmbiguous

LatviaAmbiguous

LithuaniaAmbiguous

Forecasting & commenting winners of the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup

Suggest questions for the Metaculus Cup

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

Will third countries directly intervene in the Israel-Gaza War before July 2024?

US is a NATO Member until 2029?

US-China war before 2035?

US-China war before 2035?

Will the community prediction be higher than 66.00% on 2025-08-30 for the Metaculus question 'Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?'?

Will China and India ratify a bilateral treaty addressing territorial boundaries between the two nations before 2029?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024?

Which countries will invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if it's invoked before 2040?

Forecasting & commenting winners of the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup

Suggest questions for the Metaculus Cup

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

Will third countries directly intervene in the Israel-Gaza War before July 2024?

US is a NATO Member until 2029?

US-China war before 2035?

US-China war before 2035?

Will the community prediction be higher than 66.00% on 2025-08-30 for the Metaculus question 'Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?'?

Will China and India ratify a bilateral treaty addressing territorial boundaries between the two nations before 2029?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024?

Which countries will invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if it's invoked before 2040?