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US Democracy Index

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Will at least ten countries have committed to any diplomatic agreement restricting solar geoengineering, before 2026?

10%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

99 forecasters

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

10%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

2 comments

24 forecasters

Will Zelenskyy Swap Territory/Cede Land to End the War?

30%chance

10% this week

condition

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

5 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

19%

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

14%

1 1 comment

5 forecasters

82 comments

2.1k forecasters

Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

6%chance

0 comments

4 forecasters

By 2030-12-31, will the PRC seek control of TSMC's Taiwan ops (direct or indirect)?

34%chance

17% this week

379 comments

886 forecasters

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

3 comments

16 forecasters

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

37%chance

14% this week

Key Factors

12 comments

32 forecasters

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

Vietnam87%

Singaporeresult: Yes

Taiwan68%

0 comments

98 forecasters

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.