Question Feed | Metaculus

Topics

🗳️

US Democracy Index

❓

On how many days in the following years will China carry out “reactionary” air incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone?

0 comments

2 forecasters

By 2030-12-31, will the PRC seek control of TSMC's Taiwan ops (direct or indirect)?

17.1%chance

17% this week

3 comments

12 forecasters

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

50%chance

17% this week

Key Factors

11 comments

82 forecasters

Will the Cambodia-Thailand conflict result in ⩾20 deaths between October 1 and December 15, 2025?

4%chance

3% this week

Key Factors

0 comments

98 forecasters

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

condition

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

5 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

38%

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

28%

1 1 comment

5 forecasters

9 comments

111 forecasters

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran50%

Saudi Arabia15%

South Korea10%

20 comments

33 forecasters

If Russia detonates a nuclear device offensively before 2024, which cities will be ongoing battlegrounds at that time?

SevastopolAnnulled

Luhansk cityAnnulled

DzhankoiAnnulled

21 comments

74 forecasters

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

South Korea3%

Saudi Arabia2%

Poland1%

9 comments

1.1k forecasters

Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?

2%chance