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Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

30%chance

18% this week

40 comments

26 forecasters

Which countries will invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if it's invoked before 2040?

PolandAmbiguous

LatviaAmbiguous

LithuaniaAmbiguous

21 comments

48 forecasters

Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024?

resultYes

7 comments

33 forecasters

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

United States32%

Estonia30%

Poland30%

20 comments

76 forecasters

Will China attempt to seize any region of Russia before 2046?

12%chance

0 comments

14 forecasters

Which countries will Vladimir Putin visit before July 1, 2026?

Switzerland5%

South Africa21%

Mongolia30%

7 comments

28 forecasters

Will non-compliance with environmental and climate change policies be cited as a cause of a war before 2073?

33%chance

8% this week

1 comment

50 forecasters

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Russia will not invade a NATO member by June 10, 2040?

76%chance

6% this week

21 comments

73 forecasters

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

South Korea3%

Saudi Arabia2%

Ukraine1%

9 comments

109 forecasters

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran63%

Saudi Arabia14%

South Korea9%