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US Democracy Index

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Which countries will Vladimir Putin visit before July 1, 2026?

Switzerland5%

South Africa20%

Mongolia30%

condition

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

5 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

40%

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

28%

1 1 comment

5 forecasters

28 comments

413 forecasters

Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?

13.5%chance

21 comments

74 forecasters

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

South Korea3%

Saudi Arabia2%

Japan1%

10 comments

14 forecasters

When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?

9 comments

112 forecasters

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran50%

Saudi Arabia15%

South Korea10%

5 comments

37 forecasters

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

30%chance

Key Factors

21 comments

48 forecasters

Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024?

resultYes

31 comments

730 forecasters

Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?

resultNo

6 comments

112 forecasters

Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?

resultNo