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US Democracy Index

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Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

1 forecaster

if yes

if no

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

1 1 comment

1 forecaster

82 comments

161 forecasters

Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?

Syria80%

Haiti74%

Mali61%

0 comments

18 forecasters

Which countries will Vladimir Putin visit before July 1, 2026?

Switzerland4%

South Africa11%

Mongolia30%

21 comments

48 forecasters

Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024?

resultYes

9 comments

111 forecasters

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran57%

Saudi Arabia15%

South Korea10%

5 comments

37 forecasters

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

30%chance

7 comments

33 forecasters

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

United States30%

Poland30%

Lithuania29%

2 comments

11 forecasters

Will the United States import any crude oil from Russia between 2025 and 2030?

60%chance

40 comments

26 forecasters

Which countries will invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if it's invoked before 2040?

PolandAmbiguous

LatviaAmbiguous

LithuaniaAmbiguous

25 comments

404 forecasters

Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?

10%chance