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US Democracy Index

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Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

5 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

38%

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

28%

1 1 comment

5 forecasters

9 comments

111 forecasters

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran50%

Saudi Arabia15%

South Korea10%

21 comments

74 forecasters

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

South Korea3%

Saudi Arabia2%

Poland1%

2 comments

12 forecasters

Will the United States import any crude oil from Russia between 2025 and 2030?

67%chance

7% this week

10 comments

14 forecasters

When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?

15 comments

282 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?

29%chance

5 comments

37 forecasters

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

30%chance

Key Factors

28 comments

413 forecasters

Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?

13.5%chance

31 comments

730 forecasters

Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?

resultNo

condition

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2035)

8 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

25%

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

1 1 comment

8 forecasters