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US Democracy Index

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Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

5 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

19%

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

14%

1 1 comment

5 forecasters

0 comments

23 forecasters

Which countries will Vladimir Putin visit before July 1, 2026?

Switzerland4%

South Africa18%

Mongolia31%

9 comments

112 forecasters

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran50%

Saudi Arabia15%

South Korea10%

21 comments

74 forecasters

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

South Korea3%

Saudi Arabia2%

Japan1%

28 comments

413 forecasters

Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?

13.5%chance

19 comments

38 forecasters

Will China launch a military invasion of any country other than Taiwan before 2030?

3%chance

10 comments

14 forecasters

When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?

21 comments

48 forecasters

Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024?

resultYes

15 comments

282 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?

29%chance

17 comments

142 forecasters

Will a post-Putin Russia substantially democratise within 5 years?

10%chance