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3
comments
30
forecasters
Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?
25%
chance
13%
this week
45
comments
135
forecasters
Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025?
Pokrovsk
result:
Yes
Myrnohrad
result:
No
Kostiantynivka
result:
No
1 other
12
comments
31
forecasters
Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?
Vietnam
85%
Singapore
result:
Yes
Taiwan
70%
9 others
40
comments
26
forecasters
Which countries will invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if it's invoked before 2040?
Poland
Ambiguous
Latvia
Ambiguous
Lithuania
Ambiguous
9 others
23
comments
93
forecasters
Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?
7%
chance
2%
this week
21
comments
48
forecasters
Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024?
result
Yes
Contributed by the
A Dictator’s Diary: The Strategic Logic of Political Survival
community.
0
comments
Will any Russian elites die under suspicious circumstances before December 1, 2025?
20
comments
76
forecasters
Will China attempt to seize any region of Russia before 2046?
12%
chance
15
comments
195
forecasters
Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?
2%
chance
0
comments
13
forecasters
Which countries will Vladimir Putin visit before July 1, 2026?
Switzerland
5%
South Africa
21%
Mongolia
30%
6 others
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