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3 comments
30 forecasters

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

25%chance
13% this week
45 comments
135 forecasters

Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025?

Pokrovskresult: Yes
Myrnohradresult: No
Kostiantynivkaresult: No
12 comments
31 forecasters

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

Vietnam85%
Singaporeresult: Yes
Taiwan70%
40 comments
26 forecasters

Which countries will invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if it's invoked before 2040?

PolandAmbiguous
LatviaAmbiguous
LithuaniaAmbiguous
23 comments
93 forecasters

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

7%chance
2% this week
21 comments
48 forecasters

Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024?

resultYes

Contributed by the A Dictator’s Diary: The Strategic Logic of Political Survival community.

0 comments

Will any Russian elites die under suspicious circumstances before December 1, 2025?

20 comments
76 forecasters

Will China attempt to seize any region of Russia before 2046?

12%chance
15 comments
195 forecasters

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

2%chance
0 comments
13 forecasters

Which countries will Vladimir Putin visit before July 1, 2026?

Switzerland5%
South Africa21%
Mongolia30%