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0 comments
3 forecasters

By 2031, will at least two new significant regulatory actions restricting China's access to advanced semiconductor technology be implemented?

99.9%chance
20% this week
0 comments
34 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH30%
Google Cloud16%
Amazon Web Services15%
15 comments
31 forecasters

On how many days in the following years will China carry out โ€œreactionaryโ€ air incursions into Taiwanโ€™s air defense identification zone?

12 comments
32 forecasters

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

Vietnam87%
Singaporeresult: Yes
Taiwan68%
3 comments
41 forecasters

What will be the share of lithium processed in China in 2030?

Current estimate
61.5%

Key Factors

1 comment
18 forecasters

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

SMEE44%
Naura35%
AMEC30%
379 comments
886 forecasters

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

33 comments
264 forecasters

Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?

resultNo
condition

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

5 forecasters
if yes
if no

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

45%
45%

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

26%
26%
11 comment
5
5 forecasters
107 comments
616 forecasters

Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?

resultNo