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US Democracy Index

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Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH29%

Google Cloud12%

Amazon Web Services11%

3 comments

41 forecasters

What will be the share of lithium processed in China in 2030?

Current estimate

61.4%

Key Factors

condition

33 forecasters

The Taiwan Tinderbox

378 comments

885 forecasters

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

condition

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

5 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

40%

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

28%

1 1 comment

5 forecasters

14 comments

31 forecasters

On how many days in the following years will China carry out “reactionary” air incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone?

33 comments

264 forecasters

Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?

resultNo

1 comment

35 forecasters

Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?

0.1%chance

1 comment

18 forecasters

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

SMEE44%

Naura35%

Nata30%

107 comments

616 forecasters

Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?

resultNo

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

What will be the share of lithium processed in China in 2030?

Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)

Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

On how many days in the following years will China carry out “reactionary” air incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone?

Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

What will be the share of lithium processed in China in 2030?

Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)

Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

On how many days in the following years will China carry out “reactionary” air incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone?

Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?