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US Democracy Index

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By 2031, will at least two new significant regulatory actions restricting China's access to advanced semiconductor technology be implemented?

99.9%chance

20% this week

0 comments

33 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH30%

Google Cloud16%

Microsoft Azure13%

condition

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

5 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

19%

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

14%

1 1 comment

5 forecasters

0 comments

4 forecasters

By 2030-12-31, will the PRC seek control of TSMC's Taiwan ops (direct or indirect)?

34%chance

17% this week

379 comments

886 forecasters

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

3 comments

41 forecasters

What will be the share of lithium processed in China in 2030?

Current estimate

61.5%

Key Factors

1 comment

18 forecasters

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

SMEE44%

Naura35%

AMEC30%

33 comments

264 forecasters

Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?

resultNo

condition

33 forecasters

The Taiwan Tinderbox

12 comments

32 forecasters

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

Vietnam87%

Singaporeresult: Yes

Taiwan68%

By 2031, will at least two new significant regulatory actions restricting China's access to advanced semiconductor technology be implemented?

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

By 2030-12-31, will the PRC seek control of TSMC's Taiwan ops (direct or indirect)?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

What will be the share of lithium processed in China in 2030?

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?

Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)

Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

By 2031, will at least two new significant regulatory actions restricting China's access to advanced semiconductor technology be implemented?

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

By 2030-12-31, will the PRC seek control of TSMC's Taiwan ops (direct or indirect)?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

What will be the share of lithium processed in China in 2030?

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?

Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)

Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?