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3 comments
41 forecasters

What will be the share of lithium processed in China in 2030?

Current estimate
61.3%
0 comments
32 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH29%
Google Cloud20%
Microsoft Azure14%
condition

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

5 forecasters
if yes
if no

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

34%
34%

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

37%
37%
11 comment
5
5 forecasters
6 comments
13 forecasters

What will be China's share of rare earth production in 2030?

Current estimate
51.5%
9 comments
111 forecasters

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran57%
Saudi Arabia15%
South Korea10%
21 comments
74 forecasters

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

South Korea3%
Saudi Arabia2%
Saudi ArabiaAnnulled
1 comment
18 forecasters

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

SMEE44%
Naura35%
AMEC30%
0 comments
3 forecasters

By Dec 31, 2030, will China impose new export controls (licenses/quotas/bans) on ≥1 additional semiconductor mineral (excluding gallium/germanium)?

80%chance
0 comments
1 forecaster

By 2030-12-31, will the PRC seek control of TSMC's Taiwan ops (direct or indirect)?

34%chance
0 comments
1 forecaster

By 2031, will at least two new significant regulatory actions restricting China's access to advanced semiconductor technology be implemented?

60%chance