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Forecasting & commenting winners of the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup

4
1010 comments
Metaculus Cup Summer 2025
0 comments
29 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH16%
Microsoft Azure14%
Google Cloud12%
condition

US is a NATO Member until 2029?

31 forecasters
if yes
if no

US-China war before 2035?

20%
20%

US-China war before 2035?

15%
15%
4
0 comments
31
31 forecasters
The Taiwan Tinderbox
375 comments
860 forecasters

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

12 comments
31 forecasters

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

Vietnam85%
Singaporeresult: Yes
Taiwan70%
53 comments
261 forecasters

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

4%chance
7 comments
28 forecasters

Will non-compliance with environmental and climate change policies be cited as a cause of a war before 2073?

33%chance
8% this week
5 comments
86 forecasters

Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years?

12 comments
166 forecasters

Will there be an armed conflict in the South China Sea before 2023?

resultNo
20 comments
76 forecasters

Will China attempt to seize any region of Russia before 2046?

12%chance