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3
comments
41
forecasters
What will be the share of lithium processed in China in 2030?
Current estimate
61.3%
0
comments
32
forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH
29%
Google Cloud
20%
Microsoft Azure
14%
1 other
condition
Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?
5
forecasters
if yes
if no
Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?
34%
34%
Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?
37%
37%
1
1
comment
5
5
forecasters
6
comments
13
forecasters
What will be China's share of rare earth production in 2030?
Current estimate
51.5%
9
comments
111
forecasters
Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?
Iran
57%
Saudi Arabia
15%
South Korea
10%
7 others
21
comments
74
forecasters
Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?
South Korea
3%
Saudi Arabia
2%
Saudi Arabia
Annulled
6 others
1
comment
18
forecasters
Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?
SMEE
44%
Naura
35%
AMEC
30%
1 other
0
comments
3
forecasters
By Dec 31, 2030, will China impose new export controls (licenses/quotas/bans) on ≥1 additional semiconductor mineral (excluding gallium/germanium)?
80%
chance
0
comments
1
forecaster
By 2030-12-31, will the PRC seek control of TSMC's Taiwan ops (direct or indirect)?
34%
chance
0
comments
1
forecaster
By 2031, will at least two new significant regulatory actions restricting China's access to advanced semiconductor technology be implemented?
60%
chance
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