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Forecasting & commenting winners of the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup
4
10
10
comments
Metaculus Cup Summer 2025
0
comments
29
forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH
16%
Microsoft Azure
14%
Google Cloud
12%
1 other
condition
US is a NATO Member until 2029?
31
forecasters
if yes
if no
US-China war before 2035?
20%
20%
US-China war before 2035?
15%
15%
4
0
comments
31
31
forecasters
The Taiwan Tinderbox
375
comments
860
forecasters
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?
12
comments
31
forecasters
Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?
Vietnam
85%
Singapore
result:
Yes
Taiwan
70%
9 others
53
comments
261
forecasters
Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?
4%
chance
7
comments
28
forecasters
Will non-compliance with environmental and climate change policies be cited as a cause of a war before 2073?
33%
chance
8%
this week
5
comments
86
forecasters
Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years?
12
comments
166
forecasters
Will there be an armed conflict in the South China Sea before 2023?
result
No
20
comments
76
forecasters
Will China attempt to seize any region of Russia before 2046?
12%
chance
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