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US Democracy Index

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Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

10%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

92 forecasters

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

22 forecasters

Which countries will Vladimir Putin visit before July 1, 2026?

Switzerland5%

South Africa20%

Mongolia30%

27 comments

102 forecasters

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

14%chance

Key Factors

32 comments

49 forecasters

Who will be the first long-term President of Russia after Putin?

Mikhail Mishustin12%

Dmitry Medvedev5%

Nikolai Patrushev3%

20 comments

33 forecasters

If Russia detonates a nuclear device offensively before 2024, which cities will be ongoing battlegrounds at that time?

SevastopolAnnulled

Luhansk cityAnnulled

DzhankoiAnnulled

2 comments

23 forecasters

Will Zelenskyy Swap Territory/Cede Land to End the War?

20%chance

28 comments

413 forecasters

Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?

13.5%chance

58 comments

33 forecasters

Will Russia control Pokrovsk Before October 1, 2024?

resultNo

19 comments

44 forecasters

Will Russia control Pokrovsk Before 2025?

resultNo

Key Factors