Will Israel withdraw behind the original Yellow Line in Gaza before January 1, 2027?5% chance11 comment6565 forecasters5%chance
Will Israel lose control over the Golan Heights before 2030?1% chance888 comments4242 forecasters1%chance
Will Iran and Israel both conduct direct military strikes on each other's territory between June 13 and June 28, 2026?result: no11 comment9898 forecastersResolvedNo
When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?81616 comments1616 forecasters
Will Israel conduct a ground invasion of Iran before 2027?1% chance377 comments228228 forecasters1%chance
Will attacks on Israel cause 5+ casualties or a nationwide shelter order before March 1, 2026?result: yes88 comments2424 forecastersResolvedYes
Will there be an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2024?result: yes766 comments6666 forecastersResolvedYes
Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?result: no-155 comments6767 forecastersResolvedNo
Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?result: no1010 comments1.1k1.1k forecastersResolvedNo
Will Israel enact and publish an act applying Israeli law, jurisdiction, and administration to any part of the West Bank between October 15 and December 31, 2025 (UTC)?11 commentAnnulled
Will Israel Take Control of Gaza City before Jan 20, 2029?21% chance133 comments3232 forecasters21%chance
Will third countries directly intervene in the Israel-Gaza War before July 2024?123232 comments9595 forecasters
Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?result: no71818 comments5353 forecastersResolvedNo
Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?result: no5252 comments2929 forecastersResolvedNo
Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024?result: no92424 comments135135 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution before 2030?3% chance102929 comments184184 forecasters3%chance
What will the Geopolitical Risk index be for 2023?120 (108 - 128)62929 comments3232 forecastersResolved118.88