Will any personnel of the International Stabilization Force be deployed into Gaza before August 25, 2026?0 comments88 forecasters%chance
Will the United States launch an attack against JNIM in Mali during August 2026?16.1% chance22 comments5353 forecasters16.1%chance
What will happen in the Russia–Ukraine war between July 20 and September 1, 2026?42222 comments189189 forecasters
Will China and India ratify a bilateral treaty addressing territorial boundaries between the two nations before 2029?24% chance244 comments1717 forecasters24%chance
Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2027?0.1% chance111 comment138138 forecasters0.1%chance
Will Iran and Israel both conduct direct military strikes on each other's territory between June 13 and June 28, 2026?result: no11 comment9898 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the United States conduct a ground invasion of Iran before 2027?7% chance112424 comments303303 forecasters7%chance
How many confirmed deaths will be attributed to the US-Israel-Iran war over the course of 2026?77 comments22 forecasters
Will Georgia control South Ossetia and Abkhazia before 2028?0.1% chance733 comments5858 forecasters0.1%chance
Will the Republic of Ireland abandon the policy of military neutrality before 2030?20% chance388 comments3535 forecasters20%chance
Will the People's Republic of China blockade or quarantine Taiwan before September 1, 2026?2% chance11 comment4545 forecasters2%chance
Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?318383 comments167167 forecasters
Will the next non-test detonation of a state’s nuclear weapon be immediately preceded by conventional conflict?86% chance10 comments5252 forecasters86%chance
Will China launch a military invasion of any country other than Taiwan before 2030?2% chance112020 comments4444 forecasters2%chance
What will be the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict in the following years?101212 comments7171 forecasters
Which country will be ranked the least peaceful in the Global Peace Index 2026?55 comments2525 forecasters
Will state-based conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?31.6% chance255 comments2424 forecasters31.6%chance
One year after a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement is reached in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, which side will the Wikipedia article for it say was the victor?183434 comments123123 forecasters
If these countries detonate a nuclear weapon by 2050, what proportion of those detonations will be countervalue?31313 comments3434 forecasters
Will Israel conduct a ground invasion of Iran before 2027?3% chance266 comments230230 forecasters3%chance
When will there be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict?02 Nov 2027 (11 Jan 2027 - 29 Jan 2029)47172172 comments403403 forecasters02 Nov 2027 (11 Jan 2027 - 29 Jan 2029)