Will the People's Republic of China blockade or quarantine Taiwan before September 1, 2026?8% chance0 comments1212 forecasters8%chance
Will the U.S. Senate pass an Iran war powers resolution before August 1, 2026?0 comments22 forecasters%chance
How many confirmed deaths will be attributed to the US-Israel-Iran war over the course of 2026?66 comments22 forecasters
Will China settle its South China Sea maritime boundary dispute with any other state before 2031?33.3% chance21111 comments2929 forecasters33.3%chance
Will Israel invade Lebanon before January 1, 2025?result: yes143535 comments108108 forecastersResolvedYes
Will any single oil spill larger than 50,000 barrels occur in the Persian Gulf before May 1, 2026?result: no123123 comments123123 forecastersResolvedNo
How many distinct NATO member states will formally request Article 4 consultations citing the 2026 Iran conflict before May 1, 2026?0 member states (0 - 2)111111 comments112112 forecasters0 member states (0 - 2)
When will there be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict?16 Oct 2027 (08 Feb 2027 - 14 Nov 2028)47171171 comments391391 forecasters16 Oct 2027 (08 Feb 2027 - 14 Nov 2028)
Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?result: no122727 comments210210 forecastersResolvedNo
Will Zelenskyy Swap Territory/Cede Land to End the War?25% chance277 comments9393 forecasters25%chance
Will there be an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2024?result: yes766 comments6666 forecastersResolvedYes
Will there be ≥ 100 deaths due to conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2030?result: yes32155155 comments285285 forecastersResolvedYes
Will the Russia-Ukraine war end before May 15, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET?result: no0 comments1414 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the United States conduct a ground invasion of Iran before 2027?14% chance102222 comments279279 forecasters14%chance
Will there be an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah before October 1, 2024?20.3% chance5858 comments3333 forecastersAmbiguous
If Russia detonates a nuclear device offensively before 2024, which cities will be ongoing battlegrounds at that time?152020 comments3333 forecasters
When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?81616 comments1515 forecasters
Will the US President’s ability to deploy military force be further restricted by 2030?30% chance544 comments4747 forecasters30%chance
Will third countries directly intervene in the Israel-Gaza War before July 2024?123232 comments9595 forecasters
Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2027?1.2% chance10 comments135135 forecasters1.2%chance