Will a Cognitive-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?25% chance99 comments33 forecasters25%chance
Will a Land-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?28% chance55 comments44 forecasters28%chance
Will a Space-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?25% chance1414 comments55 forecasters25%chance
Will an Air-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?40% chance55 comments44 forecasters40%chance
Will a Maritime-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?25% chance33 comments33 forecasters25%chance
Will an Air-domain AMC be employed in an irregular seizure or retention of power within five years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?8.8% chance33 comments22 forecasters8.8%chance
Will a Land-domain AMC be employed in an irregular seizure or retention of power within five years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?20% chance22 comments22 forecasters20%chance
Will a Maritime-domain AMC be employed in an irregular seizure or retention of power within five years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?10% chance11 comment11 forecaster10%chance
Will a Cognitive-domain AMC be employed in an irregular seizure or retention of power within five years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?50% chance11 comment11 forecaster50%chance
Will an Information effects-domain AMO acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?10% chance11 comment11 forecaster10%chance
Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before December 1, 2026?0 comments22 forecasters%chance
Will the United States detonate a nuclear weapon in Iran before December 1, 2026?0 comments11 forecaster%chance
Will the United States resume its air campaign against Iran before December 1, 2026?0 comments11 forecaster%chance
How many confirmed deaths will be attributed to the US-Israel-Iran war over the course of 2026?77 comments44 forecasters
Will the US President’s ability to deploy military force be further restricted by 2030?33.3% chance644 comments4545 forecasters33.3%chance
If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?79% chance10 comments3535 forecasters79%chance
What will happen in the Russia–Ukraine war between July 20 and September 1, 2026?53636 comments133133 forecasters
Will France and Russia engage in significant direct military conflict before 2031?10% chance122 comments2424 forecasters10%chance
Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?55% chance121313 comments7373 forecasters55%chance