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75 comments
74 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 17.00% on 2025-09-10 for the Metaculus question "Will combat troops from NATO countries be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?"?

resultNo
4 comments
33 forecasters

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

30%chance
15% this week
24 comments
93 forecasters

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

10%chance
5% this week
8 comments

Will Poland and Ukraine settle the Przewodów incident before 2024?

Annulled
1 comment
49 forecasters

Will Ukrainian forces secure control of the specified crossroads near Vilne and Kucheriv Yar by August 22, 2025, as indicated by ISW mapping or equivalent criteria?

resultNo
32 comments
95 forecasters

Will third countries directly intervene in the Israel-Gaza War before July 2024?

IranAnnulled
LebanonAnnulled
Saudi ArabiaAnnulled
condition

US is a NATO Member until 2029?

31 forecasters
if yes
if no

US-China war before 2035?

20%
20%

US-China war before 2035?

15%
15%
4
0 comments
31
31 forecasters
The Taiwan Tinderbox
21 comments
48 forecasters

Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024?

resultYes
40 comments
26 forecasters

Which countries will invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if it's invoked before 2040?

PolandAmbiguous
LatviaAmbiguous
LithuaniaAmbiguous
7 comments
33 forecasters

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

United States32%
Estonia30%
Poland30%