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0 comments
99 forecasters

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

10%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
107 forecasters

Will conflict between Thailand and Cambodia result in 500 deaths from March 28 to December 31, 2025?

7%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
92 forecasters

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

12 comments
94 forecasters

Will the Cambodia-Thailand conflict result in โฉพ20 deaths between October 1 and December 15, 2025?

3%chance

Key Factors

15 comments
195 forecasters

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

1.1%chance
0 comments
97 forecasters

Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

20%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

27 comments
102 forecasters

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

14%chance

Key Factors

condition

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

5 forecasters
if yes
if no

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

40%
40%

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

28%
28%
11 comment
5
5 forecasters
18 comments
190 forecasters

Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?

resultNo
8 comments

Will Poland and Ukraine settle the Przewodรณw incident before 2024?

Annulled