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0
comments
92
forecasters
Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?
5%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
0
comments
107
forecasters
Will conflict between Thailand and Cambodia result in 500 deaths from March 28 to December 31, 2025?
7%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
0
comments
97
forecasters
Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?
20%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
condition
Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?
4
forecasters
if yes
if no
Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?
34%
34%
Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?
28%
28%
1
1
comment
4
4
forecasters
2
comments
21
forecasters
Will Zelenskyy Swap Territory/Cede Land to End the War?
20%
chance
5
comments
68
forecasters
Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?
7%
chance
3%
this week
8
comments
Will Poland and Ukraine settle the Przewodów incident before 2024?
Annulled
15
comments
196
forecasters
Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?
2%
chance
9
comments
70
forecasters
Will the Cambodia-Thailand conflict result in ⩾20 deaths between October 1 and December 15, 2025?
9%
chance
32
comments
95
forecasters
Will third countries directly intervene in the Israel-Gaza War before July 2024?
Iran
Annulled
Lebanon
Annulled
Saudi Arabia
Annulled
9 others
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