Will a Cognitive-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?25% chance99 comments33 forecasters25%chance
Will a Space-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?23% chance1212 comments44 forecasters23%chance
Will an Electromagnetic spectrum-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?20% chance33 comments33 forecasters20%chance
Will a Land-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?22.5% chance33 comments22 forecasters22.5%chance
Will an Air-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?50% chance33 comments22 forecasters50%chance
Will a Maritime-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?26% chance22 comments22 forecasters26%chance
Will a Protection-domain AMO acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?40% chance44 comments11 forecaster40%chance
Will an Information effects-domain AMO acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?10% chance11 comment11 forecaster10%chance
Will the United States resume its air campaign against Iran before December 1, 2026?0 comments11 forecaster%chance
Will the Strait of Hormuz return to normal commercial traffic before December 1, 2026?0 comments33 forecasters%chance
Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before December 1, 2026?0 comments22 forecasters%chance
How many confirmed deaths will be attributed to the US-Israel-Iran war over the course of 2026?77 comments44 forecasters
What will happen in the Russia–Ukraine war between July 20 and September 1, 2026?53636 comments133133 forecasters
When (if ever) will Russia conduct a direct military attack against a NATO member state?24 Feb 2030 (11 Dec 2027 - Aug 2035)41313 comments2323 forecasters24 Feb 2030 (11 Dec 2027 - Aug 2035)
Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?55% chance121313 comments7373 forecasters55%chance
Will any personnel of the International Stabilization Force be deployed into Gaza before August 25, 2026?result: no122 comments1717 forecastersResolvedNo
Will Israel Take Control of Gaza City before Jan 20, 2029?21% chance133 comments3131 forecasters21%chance
Will the United States conduct a ground invasion of Iran before 2027?3% chance102525 comments318318 forecasters3%chance
Will the Lebanese Armed Forces deploy to the initial two pilot zones in southern Lebanon before September 2026?result: yes52222 comments101101 forecastersResolvedYes