Will the Israel–Lebanon "security track" military-delegation meeting take place at the Pentagon before May 31, 2026?result: yes22 comments9494 forecastersResolvedYes
How many confirmed deaths will be attributed to the US-Israel-Iran war over the course of 2026?66 comments22 forecasters
Will Israel invade Lebanon before October 1, 2024?15% chance35266266 comments329329 forecastersAmbiguous
Will Israel invade Lebanon before January 1, 2025?result: yes143535 comments108108 forecastersResolvedYes
Will the People's Republic of China blockade or quarantine Taiwan before September 1, 2026?0 comments88 forecasters%chance
How many distinct NATO member states will formally request Article 4 consultations citing the 2026 Iran conflict before May 1, 2026?0 member states (0 - 2)111111 comments112112 forecasters0 member states (0 - 2)
Will a ceasefire in the 2026 conflict between Israel and the United States and Iran be announced before March 15, 2026?result: no433 comments169169 forecastersResolvedNo
Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?result: no268484 comments286286 forecastersResolvedNo
Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?result: no113333 comments129129 forecastersResolvedNo
Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?48% chance4646 comments2020 forecastersAnnulled
Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?result: yes91111 comments9494 forecastersResolvedYes
Will there be an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2024?result: yes766 comments6666 forecastersResolvedYes
Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?result: no131919 comments232232 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?result: no122727 comments210210 forecastersResolvedNo
Will there be ≥ 100 deaths due to conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2030?result: yes32155155 comments285285 forecastersResolvedYes
Will there be an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah before October 1, 2024?20.3% chance5858 comments3333 forecastersAmbiguous
When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?81616 comments1515 forecasters
Will Israel strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?result: no288 comments180180 forecastersResolvedNo
Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?51% chance111010 comments5959 forecasters51%chance