Will transit calls in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait be cut by half or more on August 31, 2026 compared to July 2026?50% chance0 comments22 forecasters50%chance
Will the Lebanese Armed Forces deploy to the initial two pilot zones in southern Lebanon before September 2026?result: yes52323 comments101101 forecastersResolvedYes
What will happen in the Russia–Ukraine war between July 20 and September 1, 2026?42222 comments181181 forecasters
Will any personnel of the International Stabilization Force be deployed into Gaza before August 25, 2026?0 comments55 forecasters%chance
Will Iran and Israel both conduct direct military strikes on each other's territory between June 13 and June 28, 2026?result: no11 comment9898 forecastersResolvedNo
How many confirmed deaths will be attributed to the US-Israel-Iran war over the course of 2026?77 comments22 forecasters
Will the People's Republic of China blockade or quarantine Taiwan before September 1, 2026?1.8% chance11 comment4545 forecasters1.8%chance
Will any national military or state-affiliated armed forces deploy at least 5,000 quadruped robots in an active conflict zone before 2031?35% chance99 comments4343 forecasters35%chance
Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?result: no122727 comments210210 forecastersResolvedNo
Will third countries directly intervene in the Israel-Gaza War before July 2024?123232 comments9595 forecasters
Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024?result: no955 comments100100 forecastersResolvedNo
Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?20% chance466 comments3535 forecasters20%chance
Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?result: no268484 comments286286 forecastersResolvedNo
Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates?114141 comments8585 forecasters
Will Israel Take Control of Gaza City before Jan 20, 2029?24% chance133 comments3131 forecasters24%chance
Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?result: no131919 comments232232 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution before 2030?3% chance102929 comments180180 forecasters3%chance
When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?81616 comments1515 forecasters
Will the United States conduct a ground invasion of Iran before 2027?8% chance102424 comments302302 forecasters8%chance
When (if ever) will Russia conduct a direct military attack against a NATO member state?15 May 2031 (27 Aug 2028 - Aug 2037)41212 comments1919 forecasters15 May 2031 (27 Aug 2028 - Aug 2037)
How many Palestinian fatalities in the West Bank will be caused by Israeli forces before July 1, 2024?555 (468 - 795)422 comments2727 forecastersResolved519