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US Democracy Index

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Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

6%chance

0 comments

25 forecasters

Will there be a fatal clash between the military forces of the United States and Venezuela before March 1, 2026?

76%chance

9.3% this week

condition

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

5 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

19%

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

14%

1 1 comment

5 forecasters

0 comments

107 forecasters

Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?

10%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

6 comments

46 forecasters

If these countries are attacked by a nuclear weapon by 2030, how many cities in that country will be offensively attacked?

Europe12.6

Russia10.7

United States9.88

0 comments

98 forecasters

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

28 comments

170 forecasters

Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution before 2030?

10%chance

9 comments

112 forecasters

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran50%

Saudi Arabia15%

South Korea10%

21 comments

74 forecasters

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

South Korea3%

Saudi Arabia2%

Poland1%

32 comments

95 forecasters

Will third countries directly intervene in the Israel-Gaza War before July 2024?

IranAnnulled

LebanonAnnulled

Saudi ArabiaAnnulled