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Will third countries directly intervene in the Israel-Gaza War before July 2024?

IranAnnulled

LebanonAnnulled

Saudi ArabiaAnnulled

40 comments

26 forecasters

Which countries will invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if it's invoked before 2040?

PolandAmbiguous

LatviaAmbiguous

LithuaniaAmbiguous

8 comments

77 forecasters

Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?

7%chance

5% this week

7 comments

33 forecasters

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

United States32%

Estonia30%

Poland30%

27 comments

168 forecasters

Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution before 2030?

10%chance

7 comments

28 forecasters

Will non-compliance with environmental and climate change policies be cited as a cause of a war before 2073?

33%chance

8% this week

24 comments

135 forecasters

Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024?

resultNo

9 comments

109 forecasters

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran57%

Saudi Arabia14%

South Korea7%

8 comments

90 forecasters

Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?

resultNo

21 comments

73 forecasters

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

South Korea3%

Saudi Arabia2.5%

Japan1%