Will a senolytic therapy for a companion animal be commercially available before one for humans?71% chance577 comments3939 forecasters71%chance
Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?result: no131616 comments122122 forecastersResolvedNo
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?22.8% chance332727 comments228228 forecasters22.8%chance
By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?36% chance602323 comments424424 forecasters36%chance
Drake's Equation 5th Parameter f_i: On what fraction of habitable planets with life does intelligence evolve?9.46×10⁻⁴% (6.61×10⁻⁸ - 0.087)281010 comments164164 forecasters9.46×10⁻⁴% (6.61×10⁻⁸ - 0.087)