By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?40% chance612323 comments431431 forecasters40%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?25% chance342727 comments231231 forecasters25%chance
Will a senolytic therapy for a companion animal be commercially available before one for humans?71% chance577 comments3939 forecasters71%chance
Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?result: no131616 comments122122 forecastersResolvedNo
Drake's Equation 5th Parameter f_i: On what fraction of habitable planets with life does intelligence evolve?9.46×10⁻⁴% (6.61×10⁻⁸ - 0.087)281010 comments164164 forecasters9.46×10⁻⁴% (6.61×10⁻⁸ - 0.087)