By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?36% chance602323 comments425425 forecasters36%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?21% chance332727 comments229229 forecasters21%chance
What will be the minimum price (in 2021 USD) to clone a pet dog in 2030?14.6k $ (9455 - 22.3k)81010 comments2929 forecasters14.6k $ (9455 - 22.3k)
Will a senolytic therapy for a companion animal be commercially available before one for humans?70% chance577 comments4040 forecasters70%chance
Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?result: no131616 comments122122 forecastersResolvedNo
Drake's Equation 5th Parameter f_i: On what fraction of habitable planets with life does intelligence evolve?9.46×10⁻⁴% (6.61×10⁻⁸ - 0.087)281010 comments164164 forecasters9.46×10⁻⁴% (6.61×10⁻⁸ - 0.087)