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Public Benefit Corporation

Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

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Forecasting the Future of Animals: $3,400 in prizes

9
33 comments

Can you forecast the future of science?

6
0 comments

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

36% chance

60
2323 comments
425
425 forecasters
36%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

21% chance

33
2727 comments
229
229 forecasters
21%chance

How many doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031?

6
33 comments
5
5 forecasters

What will be the minimum price (in 2021 USD) to clone a pet dog in 2030?

14.6k $ (9455 - 22.3k)

8
1010 comments
29
29 forecasters
14.6k $
(9455 - 22.3k)

Will a senolytic therapy for a companion animal be commercially available before one for humans?

70% chance

5
77 comments
40
40 forecasters
70%chance

Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?

result: no

13
1616 comments
122
122 forecasters
ResolvedNo

Drake's Equation 5th Parameter f_i: On what fraction of habitable planets with life does intelligence evolve?

9.46×10⁻⁴% (6.61×10⁻⁸ - 0.087)

28
1010 comments
164
164 forecasters
9.46×10⁻⁴%
(6.61×10⁻⁸ - 0.087)

Playing God Question Series

7
0 comments

Ragnarök Question Series: overview

14
55 comments

Ragnarök Series—results so far

31
3434 comments

Animal Welfare Series

11
22 comments

The Salk Tournament for coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) Vaccine R&D

24
3434 comments

Lifespan Extension in Dogs and Longevity Research Signals

16
0 comments

A Global Catastrophe This Century

24
22 comments

🔬FRO-Casting to Support a New Research Model

10
66 comments

Take the Research Impact Challenge

0 comments