Does $100k to fund cultured meat development have a greater animal welfare benefit than $100k to corporate animal welfare campaigns for chickens?42% chance0 comments66 forecasters42%chance
Will an epidemic or agroterrorist attack on US agriculture cause at least $20 billion (2021 USD) in damage by 2040?22.1% chance20 comments2929 forecasters22.1%chance
How many American state ballots will have a factory farm ban on them by the end of 2030 due to Pro-Animal Future?0 comments11 forecaster
When will the number of Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations in the US have declined by 90% relative to 2020 levels?Jan 2061 (Oct 2048 - >Dec 2070)344 comments1414 forecastersJan 2061 (Oct 2048 - >Dec 2070)
When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?Sep 2045 (Dec 2031 - Apr 2067)522 comments1515 forecastersSep 2045 (Dec 2031 - Apr 2067)
If the price of the highest-quality hamburger-imitating plant products fell by 10% everywhere, how many more/fewer chickens would be consumed globally in the year 2030 (as a +/- percent)?0 comments
How many thousand cattle will be slaughtered in Australia in Q4 2020?1859 (1764 - 1937)41212 comments3333 forecasters1859 (1764 - 1937)
When will at least 5 cultivated meat products be approved for sale in the US?10 Mar 2027 (21 Feb 2026 - 27 Nov 2028)81616 comments6969 forecasters10 Mar 2027 (21 Feb 2026 - 27 Nov 2028)
What Percentage Of US Farms Will Be Reported To Have Used Precision Agriculture For Crops or Livestock By Aug. 2027?21 % of Farms (16.6 - 26.1)0 comments11 forecaster21 % of Farms (16.6 - 26.1)
Will the three-year average of livestock production subsidies fall below $150M/year by 2030?17% chance333 comments4040 forecasters17%chance
Will AGI-caused economic growth lead to lab-grown meat pushing out factory farming?30% chance10 comments1010 forecasters30%chance
Five years after AGI, how many animals will be slaughtered in factory farms?74.6B billion animals (32.4B - 100B)41010 comments2222 forecasters74.6B billion animals (32.4B - 100B)
Will agriculture, forestry, and fishing add at least 5% of value to world GDP before 2030?26% chance877 comments2424 forecasters26%chance
Will commercial farming of cows, pigs and chickens for meat be prohibited in the US before 2041?1% chance71717 comments127127 forecasters1%chance
Will any top 10 global meat processor/producer go bankrupt before 2028?22% chance733 comments6464 forecasters22%chance
How much will US livestock production be subsidized, on average, in over the 2021-22 period?637M (420M - 1.09B)41111 comments3434 forecasters637M (420M - 1.09B)
How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is greater than $20 per kg?32.7 million cattle (28.5 - 36.9)722 comments3838 forecasters32.7 million cattle (28.5 - 36.9)
How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is between $8 and $20 per kg?31.1 million (26.9 - 35.8)666 comments3636 forecasters31.1 million (26.9 - 35.8)