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Will there be a 50% decline in global meat production by 2040?

10% chance

17

122

122 forecasters

10%chance

What will India's total meat production per capita be during 2026-2027?

7.81 kg per capita (7.69 - 7.95)

1

46

46 forecasters

7.81 kg per capita

(7.69 - 7.95)

Forecasting the Future of Animals: $3,400 in prizes

9

A decrease in US meat production by 2025?

result: no

23

171

171 forecasters

ResolvedNo

How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is between $8 and $20 per kg?

30.9 million (27.1 - 34.6)

6

36

36 forecasters

30.9 million

(27.1 - 34.6)

Does $100k to fund cultured meat development have a greater animal welfare benefit than $100k to corporate animal welfare campaigns for chickens?

36.7% chance

3

3 forecasters

36.7%chance

If the price of the highest-quality hamburger-imitating plant products fell by 10% everywhere, how many more/fewer chickens would be consumed globally in the year 2030 (as a +/- percent)?

What Percentage Of US Farms Will Be Reported To Have Used Precision Agriculture For Crops or Livestock By Aug. 2027?

21 % of Farms (16.6 - 26.1)

1

1 forecaster

21 % of Farms

(16.6 - 26.1)

When will at least 5 cultivated meat products be approved for sale in the US?

16 Mar 2027 (02 Apr 2026 - 17 Aug 2028)

8

69

69 forecasters

16 Mar 2027

(02 Apr 2026 - 17 Aug 2028)

How many American state ballots will have a factory farm ban on them by the end of 2030 due to Pro-Animal Future?

1

1 forecaster

Will An American State Ban Factory Farming by 2030?

5% chance

13

13 forecasters

5%chance

Will AGI-caused economic growth lead to lab-grown meat pushing out factory farming?

22% chance

1

9

9 forecasters

22%chance

Five years after AGI, how many animals will be slaughtered in factory farms?

81.8B billion animals (49.4B - 105B)

4

22

22 forecasters

81.8B billion animals

(49.4B - 105B)

How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is greater than $20 per kg?

33.1 million cattle (29.2 - 37.1)

7

38

38 forecasters

33.1 million cattle

(29.2 - 37.1)

Will agriculture, forestry, and fishing add at least 5% of value to world GDP before 2030?

26% chance

8

23

23 forecasters

26%chance

How many thousand cattle will be slaughtered in Australia in Q4 2020?

1859 (1764 - 1937)

4

33

33 forecasters

Resolved1562.7

Will an epidemic or agroterrorist attack on US agriculture cause at least $20 billion (2021 USD) in damage by 2040?

16% chance

2

28

28 forecasters

16%chance

When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?

Sep 2045 (Dec 2031 - Apr 2067)

5

15

15 forecasters

Sep 2045

(Dec 2031 - Apr 2067)

Will commercial farming of cows, pigs and chickens for meat be prohibited in the US before 2041?

1% chance

7

126

126 forecasters

1%chance

When will the number of Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations in the US have declined by 90% relative to 2020 levels?

Sep 2056 (Jul 2046 - Jul 2067)

3

14

14 forecasters

Sep 2056

(Jul 2046 - Jul 2067)

Will any top 10 global meat processor/producer go bankrupt before 2028?

20% chance

7

63

63 forecasters

20%chance

Will the three-year average of livestock production subsidies fall below $150M/year before 2030?

19% chance

3

39

39 forecasters

19%chance