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Launched: The RAND x Metaculus Policy Challenge | $10K in Prizes + Opportunities for Students

8
1515 comments
RAND x Metaculus Policy Challenge
81 comments
624 forecasters

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

40%chance
2 comments
59 forecasters

Who will be the first group to land a human on Mars?

SpaceX65%
NASA25%
CNSA15%
75 comments
141 forecasters

What will SpaceX be worth in 2030, in billions of nominal USD?

Current estimate
>125 billion $
10 comments
28 forecasters

What will the space traveler fatality rate due to spacecraft anomalies be in the 2020's?

Current estimate
0.0012%
5 comments
7 forecasters

How much total space based solar PV (in GW) will be installed by the following years?

11 comments
20 forecasters

How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in the following years?

83 comments
115 forecasters

When will the following vehicles launch into orbit?

00
1 comment
16 forecasters

Will an international organization release a report estimating that space-based technologies have contributed to a 5% or greater increase in agricultural yields in any country before 2031?

65%chance
4 comments
23 forecasters

When will Varda successfully manufacture and sell its first product from space?

Current estimate
Nov 2030