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83 comments
115 forecasters

When will the following vehicles launch into orbit?

00

Launched: The RAND x Metaculus Policy Challenge | $10K in Prizes + Opportunities for Students

8
1616 comments
RAND x Metaculus Policy Challenge
82 comments
626 forecasters

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

40%chance
2 comments
59 forecasters

Who will be the first group to land a human on Mars?

SpaceX65%
NASA25%
CNSA15%
1 comment
25 forecasters

What propulsion mechanism will launch a payload into space at a cost of < $100/kg first?

Conventional90.2%
Air-breathing2.1%
Thermal rockets1.2%
75 comments
141 forecasters

What will SpaceX be worth in 2030, in billions of nominal USD?

Current estimate
>125 billion $
11 comments
21 forecasters

How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in the following years?

2 comments
27 forecasters

What will be the proportion of orbital launches in 2030 for the following launcher categories?

0 comments
31 forecasters

What will be the total number of successful orbital rocket launches in the following years?

10 comments
28 forecasters

What will the space traveler fatality rate due to spacecraft anomalies be in the 2020's?

Current estimate
0.00115%