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75
comments
140
forecasters
What will SpaceX be worth in 2030, in billions of nominal USD?
Current estimate
>125 billion $
2
comments
59
forecasters
Who will be the first group to land a human on Mars?
SpaceX
65%
NASA
25%
CNSA
15%
2 others
1
comment
25
forecasters
What propulsion mechanism will launch a payload into space at a cost of < $100/kg first?
Conventional
90.2%
Air-breathing
2.1%
Thermal rockets
1.2%
6 others
6%
80
comments
621
forecasters
Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?
40%
chance
83
comments
114
forecasters
When will the following vehicles launch into orbit?
00
43
comments
65
forecasters
Which country will be the first to administer more territory off Earth than on it?
United States
51%
China
35%
Israel
10%
6 others
11
comments
35
forecasters
When will the first O'Neill cylinder variant be completed?
Current estimate
2095
5
comments
7
forecasters
How much total space based solar PV (in GW) will be installed by the following years?
4
comments
23
forecasters
When will Varda successfully manufacture and sell its first product from space?
Current estimate
Sep 2031
2
comments
27
forecasters
What will be the proportion of orbital launches in 2030 for the following launcher categories?
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