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Launched: The RAND x Metaculus Policy Challenge | $10K in Prizes + Opportunities for Students
8
15
15
comments
RAND x Metaculus Policy Challenge
81
comments
624
forecasters
Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?
40%
chance
2
comments
59
forecasters
Who will be the first group to land a human on Mars?
SpaceX
65%
NASA
25%
CNSA
15%
2 others
75
comments
141
forecasters
What will SpaceX be worth in 2030, in billions of nominal USD?
Current estimate
>125 billion $
10
comments
28
forecasters
What will the space traveler fatality rate due to spacecraft anomalies be in the 2020's?
Current estimate
0.0012%
5
comments
7
forecasters
How much total space based solar PV (in GW) will be installed by the following years?
11
comments
20
forecasters
How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in the following years?
83
comments
115
forecasters
When will the following vehicles launch into orbit?
00
1
comment
16
forecasters
Will an international organization release a report estimating that space-based technologies have contributed to a 5% or greater increase in agricultural yields in any country before 2031?
65%
chance
4
comments
23
forecasters
When will Varda successfully manufacture and sell its first product from space?
Current estimate
Nov 2030
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