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83
comments
115
forecasters
When will the following vehicles launch into orbit?
00
Launched: The RAND x Metaculus Policy Challenge | $10K in Prizes + Opportunities for Students
8
16
16
comments
RAND x Metaculus Policy Challenge
82
comments
626
forecasters
Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?
40%
chance
2
comments
59
forecasters
Who will be the first group to land a human on Mars?
SpaceX
65%
NASA
25%
CNSA
15%
2 others
1
comment
25
forecasters
What propulsion mechanism will launch a payload into space at a cost of < $100/kg first?
Conventional
90.2%
Air-breathing
2.1%
Thermal rockets
1.2%
6 others
6%
75
comments
141
forecasters
What will SpaceX be worth in 2030, in billions of nominal USD?
Current estimate
>125 billion $
11
comments
21
forecasters
How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in the following years?
2
comments
27
forecasters
What will be the proportion of orbital launches in 2030 for the following launcher categories?
0
comments
31
forecasters
What will be the total number of successful orbital rocket launches in the following years?
10
comments
28
forecasters
What will the space traveler fatality rate due to spacecraft anomalies be in the 2020's?
Current estimate
0.00115%
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