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Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

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How many people will be employed in the electric vehicle industry in the United States in the following years?

10
99 comments
35
35 forecasters

What percentage of vehicles on US roads will be fully electric in 2030?

8.13% (5.03 - 13.1)

21
4747 comments
127
127 forecasters
8.13%
(5.03 - 13.1)

How many zero emission light vehicles will be available for under 40 thousand dollars (in 2022 US dollars) in the United States for the following model years?

8
1313 comments
37
37 forecasters

What will be the differential in sales between the most-sold and second most-sold consumer electric vehicles in America in 2021?

117k (91.7k - 144k)

3
88 comments
31
31 forecasters
Resolved39.919k

When will the first driverless cargo truck make a cross-USA trip?

09 Jun 2020 (Apr 2019 - 28 Nov 2021)

50
2323 comments
232
232 forecasters
Resolved01 Jan 2025 00:00 UTC

How many vehicles will Tesla report producing in 2025?

1.77M vehicles (1.63M - 2.08M)

15
4949 comments
84
84 forecasters
Resolved1.654667M vehicles

On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?

result: no

6
1515 comments
42
42 forecasters
ResolvedNo

When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?

Oct 2031 (16 Mar 2028 - Jan 2038)

18
3939 comments
105
105 forecasters
Oct 2031
(16 Mar 2028 - Jan 2038)

Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?

result: no

10
1212 comments
92
92 forecasters
ResolvedNo

When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available?

11
125125 comments
219
219 forecasters

When will US auto manufacturing recover to 80% of pre-COVID-19 production levels?

02 Oct 2020 (20 Jul 2020 - 09 Dec 2021)

3
1414 comments
11
11 forecasters
Resolved07 Jul 2020 UTC

In what year will half of new cars sold in the US be fully autonomous?

Dec 2031 (02 Dec 2027 - Feb 2037)

55
1616 comments
242
242 forecasters
Dec 2031
(02 Dec 2027 - Feb 2037)

New Metaculus EV and Cluster Question Ideas

2
44 comments

New Growth: Forecasting the Zero-Emission Vehicle Workforce

6
0 comments

Will a legacy automaker go bankrupt before 2030?

55% chance

14
2424 comments
97
97 forecasters
55%chance