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2 comments
17 forecasters

Will we be able to tolerate a 5% physical error rate in quantum computing by 2032?

25%chance
10.6% this week
10 comments
77 forecasters

Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2021 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?

Ambiguous
9 comments
94 forecasters

Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?

99%chance
18 comments
200 forecasters

Will gravitational waves from the merger of supermassive black holes be detected by November 30, 2027?

62%chance
8 comments
38 forecasters

Does Stephen Hawking's September paper contain the essence of a solution to the black hole information paradox?

resultNo
5 comments
5 forecasters

When will a muon collider turn on with a center-of-mass beam energy ≥1 TeV?

Current estimate
Jan 2048
30 comments
42 forecasters

Will quantum effects be widely accepted as responsible for consciousness before 2075?

5%chance
2 comments
33 forecasters

How much impact of quantum experiment exhibiting "exotic looped trajectories" of light?

community
8.3
result
7.002616756
4 comments
41 forecasters

Five years after AGI, will quantum gravity be solved?

14%chance
40 comments
14 forecasters

In what year will a physical object be teleported?

Current estimate
>2717