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2
comments
17
forecasters
Will we be able to tolerate a 5% physical error rate in quantum computing by 2032?
25%
chance
10.6%
this week
10
comments
77
forecasters
Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2021 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?
Ambiguous
9
comments
94
forecasters
Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?
99%
chance
18
comments
200
forecasters
Will gravitational waves from the merger of supermassive black holes be detected by November 30, 2027?
62%
chance
8
comments
38
forecasters
Does Stephen Hawking's September paper contain the essence of a solution to the black hole information paradox?
result
No
5
comments
5
forecasters
When will a muon collider turn on with a center-of-mass beam energy ≥1 TeV?
Current estimate
Jan 2048
30
comments
42
forecasters
Will quantum effects be widely accepted as responsible for consciousness before 2075?
5%
chance
2
comments
33
forecasters
How much impact of quantum experiment exhibiting "exotic looped trajectories" of light?
community
8.3
result
7.002616756
4
comments
41
forecasters
Five years after AGI, will quantum gravity be solved?
14%
chance
40
comments
14
forecasters
In what year will a physical object be teleported?
Current estimate
>2717
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