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6
comments
38
forecasters
Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?
30%
chance
Key Factors
Russian drones violated Polish airspace
Serious warnings from European intelligence and other top brass
39
comments
113
forecasters
Will there be a political protest with at least 600,000 participants in France before 2026?
6%
chance
2%
this week
Key Factors
Violence & Counting Accuracy
Bloquons Tout is a failure
Reporting basis: the Ministère de l’Intérieur et des Outre-mer prefer to report multi-site protests as different ones
8
comments
13
forecasters
Will a referendum on adopting the euro be officially announced in the Czech Republic before 2030?
25%
chance
Key Factors
Legal framework – constitutional changes or special laws are needed to enable a referendum.
Public opinion – persistent skepticism may pressure politicians to promise a referendum.
EU dynamics – stronger integration pressures could trigger domestic pushback via referendum.
5
comments
93
forecasters
Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?
3%
chance
Key Factors
Fractured parliament and weak government in France
Domestic political constraints in France
U.S. nuclear umbrella uncertainty
2
comments
38
forecasters
Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024?
result
Yes
0
comments
1
forecaster
Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024?
Annulled
4
comments
17
forecasters
Before June 2027, will a top-level French official publicly state that France will adopt a Sixth Republic?
6.8%
chance
5
comments
48
forecasters
Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?
50%
chance
7
comments
64
forecasters
Will any country trigger article 50 to leave the European Union, before 2030?
6%
chance
2
comments
34
forecasters
Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections?
EPP
result:
Yes
S&D
result:
No
ID
result:
No
4 others
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