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8
comments
13
forecasters
Will a referendum on adopting the euro be officially announced in the Czech Republic before 2030?
25%
chance
Key Factors
EU dynamics – stronger integration pressures could trigger domestic pushback via referendum.
Legal framework – constitutional changes or special laws are needed to enable a referendum.
Public opinion – persistent skepticism may pressure politicians to promise a referendum.
39
comments
105
forecasters
Will there be a political protest with at least 600,000 participants in France before 2026?
4%
chance
3%
this week
Key Factors
Violence & Counting Accuracy
Bloquons Tout is a failure
Reporting basis: the Ministère de l’Intérieur et des Outre-mer prefer to report multi-site protests as different ones
5
comments
89
forecasters
Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?
4%
chance
Key Factors
German stance
Fractured parliament and weak government in France
U.S. nuclear umbrella uncertainty
5
comments
37
forecasters
Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?
30%
chance
Key Factors
Russian drones violated Polish airspace
2
comments
38
forecasters
Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024?
result
Yes
0
comments
1
forecaster
Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024?
Annulled
4
comments
16
forecasters
Before June 2027, will a top-level French official publicly state that France will adopt a Sixth Republic?
7%
chance
2
comments
34
forecasters
Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections?
EPP
result:
Yes
S&D
result:
No
ID
result:
No
4 others
9
comments
28
forecasters
Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023?
NSC
result:
No
VVD
result:
No
PvdA-GL
result:
No
4 others
52
comments
27
forecasters
When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process?
00
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