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[PRACTICE] Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?

1.7% chance

-1

288 288 comments

156

156 forecasters

1.7%chance

When will these countries adopt the Euro?

6

13

13 forecasters

Will the following countries be part of the European Union in 2050?

28

97

97 forecasters

Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?

result: no

1

114

114 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?

4% chance

33

33 forecasters

4%chance

Will Belarus become a EU candidate country before 2030?

0.1% chance

7

81

81 forecasters

0.1%chance

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that there will be no civil war in a European country (that wasn't communist in 1988) by 2046?

87% chance

5

59

59 forecasters

87%chance

Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?

3.3% chance

5

111

111 forecasters

3.3%chance

Before June 2027, will a top-level French official publicly state that France will adopt a Sixth Republic?

5% chance

2

32

32 forecasters

5%chance

Will the UK join or create a youth mobility scheme with the EU before 2030?

66.8% chance

2

20

20 forecasters

66.8%chance

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2026)

result: no

112 112 comments

111

111 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will there be a repeat election in the Parliament of Catalonia before the end of 2024?

result: no

1

19

19 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024?

result: yes

38

38 forecasters

ResolvedYes

Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024?

1

1 forecaster

Annulled

Will any country trigger article 50 to leave the European Union, before 2030?

4% chance

7

85

85 forecasters

4%chance

Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections?

4

34

34 forecasters

Who will get the most votes in the first round of the May 2025 Romanian election?

69

69 forecasters

Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before October 31, 2024?

result: no

18

105

105 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will a referendum on adopting the euro be officially announced in the Czech Republic before 2030?

10% chance

3

19

19 forecasters

10%chance

Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023?

7

28

28 forecasters

Will any members of the European Parliament resign before July 1, 2025?

result: no

79

79 forecasters

ResolvedNo

[Short fuse] Will there be a majority of "Yes" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum?

result: yes

3

40

40 forecasters

ResolvedYes

[Short fuse] Will the Moldovan European Union membership referendum cross the turnout threshold to be valid?

result: yes

7

19

19 forecasters

ResolvedYes

Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections?

5

33

33 forecasters