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5
comments
78
forecasters
Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?
4%
chance
3%
this week
Key Factors
German stance
Fractured parliament and weak government in France
U.S. nuclear umbrella uncertainty
5
comments
37
forecasters
Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?
30%
chance
Key Factors
Russian drones violated Polish airspace
7
comments
33
forecasters
Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?
Lithuania
30%
Poland
30%
United States
30%
9 others
5
comments
11
forecasters
When will these countries adopt the Euro?
00
2
comments
34
forecasters
Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections?
EPP
result:
Yes
S&D
result:
No
ID
result:
No
4 others
7
comments
63
forecasters
Will any country trigger article 50 to leave the European Union, before 2030?
7%
chance
52
comments
93
forecasters
Will the following countries be part of the European Union in 2050?
Montenegro
96%
North Macedonia
87.5%
Albania
85%
17 others
5
comments
47
forecasters
Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?
51%
chance
1
comment
49
forecasters
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Russia will not invade a NATO member by June 10, 2040?
77%
chance
2
comments
38
forecasters
Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024?
result
Yes
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