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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature
5 comments
78 forecasters

Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?

4%chance
3% this week

Key Factors

5 comments
37 forecasters

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

30%chance

Key Factors

7 comments
33 forecasters

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Lithuania30%
Poland30%
United States30%
5 comments
11 forecasters

When will these countries adopt the Euro?

00
2 comments
34 forecasters

Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections?

EPPresult: Yes
S&Dresult: No
IDresult: No
7 comments
63 forecasters

Will any country trigger article 50 to leave the European Union, before 2030?

7%chance
52 comments
93 forecasters

Will the following countries be part of the European Union in 2050?

Montenegro96%
North Macedonia87.5%
Albania85%
5 comments
47 forecasters

Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?

51%chance
1 comment
49 forecasters

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Russia will not invade a NATO member by June 10, 2040?

77%chance
2 comments
38 forecasters

Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024?

resultYes