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8
comments
13
forecasters
Will a referendum on adopting the euro be officially announced in the Czech Republic before 2030?
25%
chance
Key Factors
Domestic politics – election outcomes and party coalitions shape chances of calling a referenduum.
Public opinion – persistent skepticism may pressure politicians to promise a referendum.
EU dynamics – stronger integration pressures could trigger domestic pushback via referendum.
5
comments
94
forecasters
Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?
3%
chance
Key Factors
Fractured parliament and weak government in France
Domestic political constraints in France
U.S. nuclear umbrella uncertainty
5
comments
48
forecasters
Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?
50%
chance
7
comments
64
forecasters
Will any country trigger article 50 to leave the European Union, before 2030?
6%
chance
2
comments
34
forecasters
Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections?
EPP
result:
Yes
S&D
result:
No
ID
result:
No
4 others
67
comments
967
forecasters
Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?
0.3%
chance
10
comments
66
forecasters
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates?
1
comment
12
forecasters
Will the UK join or create a youth mobility scheme with the EU before 2030?
90%
chance
3
comments
33
forecasters
Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections?
EPP
result:
Yes
S&D
result:
No
Renew
result:
No
4 others
30
comments
40
forecasters
[Short fuse] Will there be a majority of "Yes" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum?
result
Yes
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