Will Iceland vote Yes in the 2026 EU negotiations referendum?58% chance177 comments8383 forecasters58%chance
[PRACTICE] Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?2% chance288288 comments156156 forecasters2%chance
Will any country trigger article 50 to leave the European Union, before 2030?2% chance799 comments8383 forecasters2%chance
Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?2% chance0 comments6565 forecasters2%chance
Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections?422 comments3434 forecasters
Will the UK join or create a youth mobility scheme with the EU before 2030?70% chance211 comment1717 forecasters70%chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2026)result: no112112 comments111111 forecastersResolvedNo
Will a European Union member state be one of the first 10 countries to select 10% of its population for IQ?15.8% chance91414 comments5959 forecasters15.8%chance
Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?0.1% chance976767 comments985985 forecasters0.1%chance
Will a referendum on adopting the euro be officially announced in the Czech Republic before 2030?10% chance388 comments1919 forecasters10%chance
[Short fuse] Will there be a majority of "Yes" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum?result: yes33030 comments4040 forecastersResolvedYes
[Short fuse] Will the Moldovan European Union membership referendum cross the turnout threshold to be valid?result: yes722 comments1919 forecastersResolvedYes
Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections?533 comments3333 forecasters
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that there will be no civil war in a European country (that wasn't communist in 1988) by 2046?88% chance52727 comments5858 forecasters88%chance