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7
comments
58
forecasters
Will any country trigger article 50 to leave the European Union, before 2030?
10%
chance
67
comments
959
forecasters
Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?
0.3%
chance
27
comments
54
forecasters
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that there will be no civil war in a European country (that wasn't communist in 1988) by 2046?
84%
chance
25
comments
26
forecasters
Which alliance will form the 2024 EU Commission?
EPP + S&D + RE
Annulled
EPP + S&D + RE + G/EFA
Annulled
EPP + S&D + G/EFA
Annulled
3 others
condition
War in Europe by 2153?
5
forecasters
if yes
if no
Date EU Ceases to Exist?
2105
Date EU Ceases to Exist?
2145
3
0
comments
5
5
forecasters