Will the European Union ever comprise all countries with territory in Europe?16% chance277 comments1212 forecasters16%chance
Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?2% chance11 comment126126 forecasters2%chance
Will a referendum on adopting the euro be officially announced in the Czech Republic before 2030?10% chance388 comments1717 forecasters10%chance
Will any country trigger article 50 to leave the European Union, before 2030?2% chance799 comments8585 forecasters2%chance
Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections?533 comments3333 forecasters
Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections?422 comments3434 forecasters
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that there will be no civil war in a European country (that wasn't communist in 1988) by 2046?88% chance52727 comments5858 forecasters88%chance
Will a European Union member state be one of the first 10 countries to select 10% of its population for IQ?10% chance91414 comments5757 forecasters10%chance
Conditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by "the left" or by "the right"?97.4 (78.6 - 99.3)62828 comments4444 forecasters97.4 (78.6 - 99.3)
Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?0.1% chance976767 comments986986 forecasters0.1%chance