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8
comments
13
forecasters
Will a referendum on adopting the euro be officially announced in the Czech Republic before 2030?
25%
chance
Key Factors
Domestic politics – election outcomes and party coalitions shape chances of calling a referenduum.
Public opinion – persistent skepticism may pressure politicians to promise a referendum.
EU dynamics – stronger integration pressures could trigger domestic pushback via referendum.
5
comments
89
forecasters
Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?
4%
chance
Key Factors
German stance
Fractured parliament and weak government in France
U.S. nuclear umbrella uncertainty
2
comments
34
forecasters
Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections?
EPP
result:
Yes
S&D
result:
No
ID
result:
No
4 others
52
comments
93
forecasters
Will the following countries be part of the European Union in 2050?
Montenegro
96%
North Macedonia
87.5%
Albania
85%
17 others
5
comments
48
forecasters
Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?
50%
chance
5
comments
11
forecasters
When will these countries adopt the Euro?
00
7
comments
64
forecasters
Will any country trigger article 50 to leave the European Union, before 2030?
7%
chance
28
comments
44
forecasters
Conditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by "the left" or by "the right"?
Latest estimate
97.4
This question is closed for forecasting.
3
comments
33
forecasters
Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections?
EPP
result:
Yes
S&D
result:
No
Renew
result:
No
4 others
27
comments
54
forecasters
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that there will be no civil war in a European country (that wasn't communist in 1988) by 2046?
85%
chance
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