0 comments
8 forecasters
Will both Kalshi and Polymarket assign >20% odds to the major-party nomination of an already twice-elected former U.S. president in the following years?
82 comments
235 forecasters
If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Donald Trump (R)result: Yes
Kamala Harris (D)result: No
Gavin Newsom (D)Annulled
3.9k comments
3.6k forecasters
Who will be elected US President in 2024?
Donald Trumpresult: Yes
Gretchen Whitmerresult: No
Pete Buttigiegresult: No
60 comments
317 forecasters
Will Elon Musk hold major political office in the United States before February 2033?
3%chance
29 comments
80 forecasters
Will the US continuously be a Liberal Democracy until 2030, 2040, and 2050?
203063%
204040%
205040%
12 comments
33 forecasters
Will a prominent Democratic politician seek asylum abroad before January 20, 2029?
10%chance
0 comments
94 forecasters
What will be the Economist Democracy Index for the United States for 2026?
Current estimate
7.2
30 comments
44 forecasters
If at least one US state secedes before 2071, which states will secede?
Texas49%
California35%
Florida20%