0 comments
42 forecasters
Will the 2025 return of professional investor Bill Ackman beat the return of any of these politicians?
10%chance
82 comments
235 forecasters
If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Donald Trump (R)result: Yes
Kamala Harris (D)result: No
Gavin Newsom (D)Annulled
3.9k comments
3.6k forecasters
Who will be elected US President in 2024?
Donald Trumpresult: Yes
Gretchen Whitmerresult: No
Pete Buttigiegresult: No
14 comments
36 forecasters
Will a prominent Democratic politician seek asylum abroad before January 20, 2029?
10%chance
30 comments
45 forecasters
If at least one US state secedes before 2071, which states will secede?
Texas50%
California36%
Florida20%
38 comments
81 forecasters
Will the US continuously be a Liberal Democracy until 2030, 2040, and 2050?
203060%
204040%
205038%
0 comments
45 forecasters
Will both Kalshi and Polymarket assign >20% odds to the major-party nomination of an already twice-elected former U.S. president in the following years?
60 comments
319 forecasters
Will Elon Musk hold major political office in the United States before February 2033?
3%chance