What will the U.S. score on the Rule of Law Index in 2028, conditional on control of Congress?0 comments1010 forecasters
What will be the final value of the U.S. Democracy Threat Index for 2027-2028, conditional on control of Congress?10 comments4040 forecasters
Will Elon Musk hold major political office in the United States before February 2033?2% chance256060 comments320320 forecasters2%chance
Will both Kalshi and Polymarket assign >20% odds to the major-party nomination of an already twice-elected U.S. president in the following years?22 comments104104 forecasters
Will a prominent Democratic politician seek asylum abroad before January 20, 2029?5% chance11717 comments4242 forecasters5%chance
If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?198282 comments235235 forecasters
What will be the Economist Democracy Index for the United States for 2026?7.56 (7.34 - 7.73)20 comments140140 forecasters7.56 (7.34 - 7.73)
How will China score on the Human Freedom Index in 2030?5.3 points (4.76 - 5.79)50 comments2424 forecasters5.3 points (4.76 - 5.79)
Five years after AGI, what will be the U.S.’s inequality level (Gini index)?48.7 Gini (39.8 - 58.7)855 comments2929 forecasters48.7 Gini (39.8 - 58.7)
If at least one US state secedes before 2071, which states will secede?113030 comments4646 forecasters
US Hyperinflation Before 2050 → 10% agricul. drop leading to >400M fatalities10 comments99 forecasters
What will be the US' score in the Freedom in the World Report for 2050?78.5 points (66.6 - 89.5)977 comments2424 forecasters78.5 points (66.6 - 89.5)
By 2030, will at least 1% of Gallup respondents report the most important problem facing the US is something relating to space?3% chance1199 comments4848 forecasters3%chance
How do we operationalize whether the US will experience a constitutional crisis/widespread unrest after 2020 elections?143030 comments