What will be the final value of the U.S. Democracy Threat Index for 2027-2028, conditional on control of Congress?0 comments1616 forecasters
If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?198282 comments235235 forecasters
Will Elon Musk hold major political office in the United States before February 2033?2% chance256060 comments321321 forecasters2%chance
Will both Kalshi and Polymarket assign >20% odds to the major-party nomination of an already twice-elected U.S. president in the following years?22 comments9393 forecasters
By 2030, will at least 1% of Gallup respondents report the most important problem facing the US is something relating to space?3.3% chance1199 comments5050 forecasters3.3%chance
If at least one US state secedes before 2071, which states will secede?113030 comments4646 forecasters
How will China score on the Human Freedom Index in 2030?5.58 points (5.15 - 6.03)50 comments2222 forecasters5.58 points (5.15 - 6.03)
What will be the Economist Democracy Index for the United States for 2026?7.51 (7.25 - 7.69)20 comments135135 forecasters7.51 (7.25 - 7.69)
Will a prominent Democratic politician seek asylum abroad before January 20, 2029?7% chance21515 comments4242 forecasters7%chance
Five years after AGI, what will be the U.S.’s inequality level (Gini index)?48 Gini (38.6 - 61.4)855 comments2828 forecasters48 Gini (38.6 - 61.4)
US Hyperinflation Before 2050 → 10% agricul. drop leading to >400M fatalities10 comments99 forecasters
What will be the US' score in the Freedom in the World Report for 2050?77.4 points (65.8 - 83.7)977 comments2323 forecasters77.4 points (65.8 - 83.7)
How do we operationalize whether the US will experience a constitutional crisis/widespread unrest after 2020 elections?143030 comments