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Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

12
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U.S. Democracy Threat Index

Collaborative Intelligence: Harnessing Crowd Forecasting for National Security

3
0 comments
2 comments
43 forecasters

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that real gross world product will not exceed 130% of its previous yearly peak for any single year by January 1, 2043?

80%chance
11 comments
82 forecasters

Will Blake Masters be President of the United States before 2070?

1%chance
22 comments
72 forecasters

Will Robin Hanson win his bet against Matthew Barnett on whether ems will come before de novo AGI?

1.1%chance

Public Figures: New Figure Suggestions

34
183183 comments
28 comments
59 forecasters

When will there be at least one billion Americans?

Current estimate
>2120

Vox Future Perfect Predictions for 2022

8
55 comments
Future Perfect 2022 Series

Matthew Yglesias Predicts 2021

21
1313 comments
Matthew Yglesias Predicts 2021

Results of 2020 U.S. Election Risks Survey

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