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Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index
12
0
comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index
Collaborative Intelligence: Harnessing Crowd Forecasting for National Security
3
0
comments
2
comments
43
forecasters
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that real gross world product will not exceed 130% of its previous yearly peak for any single year by January 1, 2043?
80%
chance
11
comments
82
forecasters
Will Blake Masters be President of the United States before 2070?
1%
chance
22
comments
72
forecasters
Will Robin Hanson win his bet against Matthew Barnett on whether ems will come before de novo AGI?
1.1%
chance
Public Figures: New Figure Suggestions
34
183
183
comments
28
comments
59
forecasters
When will there be at least one billion Americans?
Current estimate
>2120
Vox Future Perfect Predictions for 2022
8
5
5
comments
Future Perfect 2022 Series
Matthew Yglesias Predicts 2021
21
13
13
comments
Matthew Yglesias Predicts 2021
Results of 2020 U.S. Election Risks Survey
0
comments
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