Will five of the 25 best-known political figures of each party claim that fraud or other illegal conduct affected the 2026 midterms?211 comment2323 forecasters
If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?198282 comments235235 forecasters
Will the U.S. Congress limit presidential war powers before January 3, 2029, conditional on control of Congress?144 comments8282 forecasters
Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires?63535 comments3737 forecasters
What will the U.S. score on the Rule of Law Index in 2028, conditional on control of Congress?0 comments3131 forecasters
What will be the Economist Democracy Index for the United States for 2026?7.57 (7.35 - 7.73)20 comments152152 forecasters7.57 (7.35 - 7.73)
When will a sitting US President make a declaration about AI that meets the following criterion?111818 comments1818 forecasters
What will be the final value of the U.S. Democracy Threat Index for 2027-2028, conditional on control of Congress?33 comments6363 forecasters
Will Elon Musk hold major political office in the United States before February 2033?1.1% chance266060 comments321321 forecasters1.1%chance
Will an opposing-party authority block or remove a major-party nominee for statewide office from the U.S. general-election ballot in the following years?20 comments112112 forecasters
What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election?153838 comments6464 forecasters
Will a prominent Democratic politician seek asylum abroad before January 20, 2029?5% chance12020 comments4343 forecasters5%chance
Will the United States become a dictatorship by 2100?28% chance148181 comments150150 forecasters28%chance
Will a member of the Forward Party hold any seat in the US congress or the presidency by February 1st 2029?0.7% chance122525 comments103103 forecasters0.7%chance
Will the following people receive a presidential pardon or commutation before noon January 20, 2029?31313 comments1212 forecasters
Will the US continuously be a Liberal Democracy until 2030, 2040, and 2050?174141 comments8484 forecasters
Will the 2026 U.S. midterm elections be considered "free and fair"?94% chance388 comments5353 forecasters94%chance
Will both Kalshi and Polymarket assign >20% odds to the major-party nomination of an already twice-elected U.S. president in the following years?22 comments111111 forecasters
How many false keys will there be in the 2024 edition of "The Keys to the White House"?4.03 (3.9 - 4.2)78383 comments4646 forecastersResolved4
Will the Economist stop classifying the United States as a democracy before 2030?10% chance633 comments4545 forecasters10%chance
If at least one US state secedes before 2071, which states will secede?113030 comments4646 forecasters