What will be the final value of the U.S. Democracy Threat Index for 2027-2028, conditional on control of Congress?22 comments4242 forecasters
What will the U.S. score on the Rule of Law Index in 2028, conditional on control of Congress?0 comments1515 forecasters
Will the U.S. Congress limit presidential war powers before January 3, 2029, conditional on control of Congress?11 comment5555 forecasters
Will the 2026 U.S. midterm elections be considered "free and fair"?86.8% chance388 comments4646 forecasters86.8%chance
When will a sitting US President make a declaration about AI that meets the following criterion?111717 comments1717 forecasters
If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?198282 comments235235 forecasters
Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires?53535 comments3737 forecasters
What will be the Economist Democracy Index for the United States for 2026?7.56 (7.36 - 7.73)20 comments142142 forecasters7.56 (7.36 - 7.73)
Will a prominent Democratic politician seek asylum abroad before January 20, 2029?5% chance11717 comments4242 forecasters5%chance
Will the following people receive a presidential pardon or commutation before noon January 20, 2029?31313 comments1212 forecasters
Will the US continuously be a Liberal Democracy until 2030, 2040, and 2050?174141 comments8484 forecasters
Will an opposing-party authority block or remove a major-party nominee for statewide office from the U.S. general-election ballot in the following years?20 comments105105 forecasters
Will both Kalshi and Polymarket assign >20% odds to the major-party nomination of an already twice-elected U.S. president in the following years?22 comments104104 forecasters
What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election?153838 comments6464 forecasters
Will the Economist stop classifying the United States as a democracy before 2030?15% chance633 comments4444 forecasters15%chance
How many false keys will there be in the 2024 edition of "The Keys to the White House"?4.03 (3.9 - 4.2)78383 comments4646 forecastersResolved4
If at least one US state secedes before 2071, which states will secede?113030 comments4646 forecasters
Will the United States become a dictatorship by 2100?30% chance148181 comments150150 forecasters30%chance
Will Jeff Bezos hold major political office in the United States before February 2033?2% chance888 comments9898 forecasters2%chance