Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires?53535 comments3737 forecasters
If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?198282 comments235235 forecasters
Will the following people receive a presidential pardon or commutation before noon January 20, 2029?31313 comments1212 forecasters
What will be the final value of the U.S. Democracy Threat Index for 2027-2028, conditional on control of Congress?0 comments2727 forecasters
When will a sitting US President make a declaration about AI that meets the following criterion?111515 comments1717 forecasters
Will the U.S. Congress limit presidential war powers before January 3, 2029, conditional on control of Congress?0 comments3535 forecasters
Will Elon Musk hold major political office in the United States before February 2033?2% chance256060 comments321321 forecasters2%chance
What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election?153838 comments6464 forecasters
Will an opposing-party authority block or remove a major-party nominee for statewide office from the U.S. general-election ballot in the following years?20 comments9494 forecasters
Will the 2026 U.S. midterm elections be considered "free and fair"?91% chance577 comments4242 forecasters91%chance
If at least one US state secedes before 2071, which states will secede?113030 comments4646 forecasters
Will both Kalshi and Polymarket assign >20% odds to the major-party nomination of an already twice-elected U.S. president in the following years?22 comments9393 forecasters
Will the US continuously be a Liberal Democracy until 2030, 2040, and 2050?174141 comments8484 forecasters
How many false keys will there be in the 2024 edition of "The Keys to the White House"?4.03 (3.9 - 4.2)78383 comments4646 forecasters4.03 (3.9 - 4.2)
What will be the Economist Democracy Index for the United States for 2026?7.49 (7.24 - 7.67)20 comments135135 forecasters7.49 (7.24 - 7.67)
Will Blake Masters be President of the United States before 2070?1% chance21111 comments8484 forecasters1%chance
Will a prominent Democratic politician seek asylum abroad before January 20, 2029?6% chance21515 comments4040 forecasters6%chance
Will the United States withdraw from any of its current mutual defence treaties by 2030?22% chance833 comments5858 forecasters22%chance
What will be the US' score in the Freedom in the World Report for 2050?75.6 points (64.4 - 84.6)977 comments2323 forecasters75.6 points (64.4 - 84.6)
Will the Economist stop classifying the United States as a democracy before 2030?15% chance633 comments4444 forecasters15%chance