35 comments
37 forecasters
Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires?
Jack Smith (special counsel)result: No
Barack Obamaresult: No
Fani Willis (Fulton Co. DA)result: No
3.9k comments
3.6k forecasters
Who will be elected US President in 2024?
Donald Trumpresult: Yes
Gretchen Whitmerresult: No
Pete Buttigiegresult: No
82 comments
235 forecasters
If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Donald Trump (R)result: Yes
Kamala Harris (D)result: No
Gavin Newsom (D)Annulled
38 comments
64 forecasters
What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Democraticresult: 48.3242
Republicanresult: 49.79607
Greenresult: 0.555306
0 comments
10 forecasters
Will both Kalshi and Polymarket assign >20% odds to the major-party nomination of an already twice-elected former U.S. president in the following years?
0 comments
7 forecasters
Will the 2025 return of professional investor Bill Ackman beat the return of any of these politicians?
10%chance
2 comments
37 forecasters
Will the Economist stop classifying the United States as a democracy before 2030?
15%chance
5% this week
60 comments
318 forecasters
Will Elon Musk hold major political office in the United States before February 2033?
3%chance