What will the U.S. score on the Rule of Law Index in 2028, conditional on control of Congress?0 comments1313 forecasters
What will be the final value of the U.S. Democracy Threat Index for 2027-2028, conditional on control of Congress?10 comments4141 forecasters
What will Adjacent's RED and BLUE political index values be at the 2026 midterms?22 comments44 forecasters
If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?198282 comments235235 forecasters
Will Alex Jones ever hold high Federal office in the United States before 2030?0.3% chance-174444 comments309309 forecasters0.3%chance
Will a prominent Democratic politician seek asylum abroad before January 20, 2029?5% chance11717 comments4242 forecasters5%chance
What will be the Economist Democracy Index for the United States for 2026?7.55 (7.33 - 7.72)20 comments141141 forecasters7.55 (7.33 - 7.72)
What will be the US' score in the Freedom in the World Report for 2050?78.4 points (66.3 - 89.8)977 comments2424 forecasters78.4 points (66.3 - 89.8)
Will the Economist stop classifying the United States as a democracy before 2030?15% chance633 comments4444 forecasters15%chance
Will Russell Rickford cease to be a faculty member of Cornell before 2030?50% chance344 comments1313 forecasters50%chance
If at least one US state secedes before 2071, which states will secede?113030 comments4646 forecasters
Will Elon Musk hold major political office in the United States before February 2033?2% chance256060 comments321321 forecasters2%chance
Will Blake Masters be President of the United States before 2070?0.5% chance21111 comments8282 forecasters0.5%chance
Will the United States drop below a 7 in the Democracy index by 2040?57% chance1033 comments4444 forecasters57%chance