0 comments
8 forecasters
Will both Kalshi and Polymarket assign >20% odds to the major-party nomination of an already twice-elected former U.S. president in the following years?
82 comments
235 forecasters
If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Donald Trump (R)result: Yes
Kamala Harris (D)result: No
Gavin Newsom (D)Annulled
3.9k comments
3.6k forecasters
Who will be elected US President in 2024?
Donald Trumpresult: Yes
Gretchen Whitmerresult: No
Pete Buttigiegresult: No
3 comments
39 forecasters
Will the United States drop below a 7 in the Democracy index by 2040?
48%chance
8% this week
60 comments
317 forecasters
Will Elon Musk hold major political office in the United States before February 2033?
3%chance
29 comments
80 forecasters
Will the US continuously be a Liberal Democracy until 2030, 2040, and 2050?
203063%
204040%
205040%
12 comments
33 forecasters
Will a prominent Democratic politician seek asylum abroad before January 20, 2029?
10%chance
0 comments
94 forecasters
What will be the Economist Democracy Index for the United States for 2026?
Current estimate
7.2