If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?198282 comments235235 forecasters
What will be the final value of the U.S. Democracy Threat Index for 2027-2028, conditional on control of Congress?0 comments2424 forecasters
Will Elon Musk hold major political office in the United States before February 2033?2% chance256060 comments321321 forecasters2%chance
If at least one US state secedes before 2071, which states will secede?113030 comments4646 forecasters
What will be the Economist Democracy Index for the United States for 2026?7.49 (7.22 - 7.67)20 comments135135 forecasters7.49 (7.22 - 7.67)
Will Russell Rickford cease to be a faculty member of Cornell before 2030?42% chance344 comments1515 forecasters42%chance
What will be the US' score in the Freedom in the World Report for 2050?77.4 points (65.8 - 83.7)977 comments2323 forecasters77.4 points (65.8 - 83.7)
Will Blake Masters be President of the United States before 2070?1% chance21111 comments8484 forecasters1%chance
Will the United States drop below a 7 in the Democracy index by 2040?57% chance1033 comments4444 forecasters57%chance
Will Alex Jones ever hold high Federal office in the United States before 2030?1% chance-174444 comments310310 forecasters1%chance
Will a prominent Democratic politician seek asylum abroad before January 20, 2029?7% chance21515 comments4242 forecasters7%chance
Will the Economist stop classifying the United States as a democracy before 2030?15% chance633 comments4444 forecasters15%chance