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82 comments
235 forecasters

If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Donald Trump (R)result: Yes
Kamala Harris (D)result: No
Gavin Newsom (D)Annulled

Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

17
66 comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index
0 comments
6 forecasters

Will the 2025 return of professional investor Bill Ackman beat the return of any of these politicians?

10%chance
12 comments
31 forecasters

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

Vietnam85%
Singaporeresult: Yes
Taiwan70%
7 comments
15 forecasters

Will chips covered by the 2022 US export controls be exported to China before the following dates?

7 comments
81 forecasters

Will the US government acquire stock in any of the selected semicondunductor companies before 2026?

5%chance

Key Factors

14 comments
35 forecasters

Will a prominent Democratic politician seek asylum abroad before January 20, 2029?

10%chance

A Case for Nuanced Risk Assessment

10
11 comment
Metaculus Journal Archives

Forecast International Elections With Data Journalist Kiko Llaneras

11
33 comments

Forecast on Bryan Caplan's Bets in New Series

7
0 comments