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9 forecasters

Will the United States, Russia or China detonate a nuclear device before April 1, 2026?

Current estimate
Revealed in 2 days
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Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Hugging Face)

This question is closed for forecasting.

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106 forecasters

Before 2026, will the White House launch a multi-billion dollar moonshot initiative to accelerate artificial general intelligence (AGI), as announced in an official White House press release?

20%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

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$5,000 in Prizes for Comments in the AI Pathways Tournament: Submit Before November 1

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AI Pathways Tournament
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58 forecasters

Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?

5%chance
2% this week

Key Factors

Contributed by the Unjournal Forecasting community.

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If the price of the highest-quality hamburger-imitating plant products fell by 10% everywhere, how many more/fewer chickens would be consumed globally in the year 2030 (as a +/- percent)?

Current estimate

Contributed by the Unjournal Forecasting community.

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Median prob. among Unjournal experts: “If the price of the... hamburger-imitating plant products fell by 10% ... how many more/fewer chickens consumed globally in 2030 (+/- percent)?

Current estimate
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108 forecasters

Will Fathom Radiant ship a commercial product before 2026?

8%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

3 comments
1 forecaster

Will a frontier AI developer publicly accuse a Russian actor of stealing their model weights before 2030?

70%chance