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US Democracy Index

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What will be the share of lithium processed in China in 2030?

Current estimate

63.8%

8 comments

61 forecasters

How many times will Starship reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2025?

395%

44.6%

00.1%

0 comments

101 forecasters

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?

12%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

condition

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

1 forecaster

if yes

if no

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

1 1 comment

1 forecaster

0 comments

106 forecasters

Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before 2026?

16%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

106 forecasters

Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

100 forecasters

Will diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and China on nuclear risk reduction increase in 2025?

35%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

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91 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 11.00% on 2025-10-24 for the Metaculus question "Will the US government acquire stock in any of the selected semicondunductor companies before 2026?"?

35%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

97 forecasters

Will at least two of the United States, Russia or China mutually agree to decrease their nuclear stockpiles before 2026?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.