0 comments
100 forecasters
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (C3.ai)
5%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
0 comments
20 forecasters
Will the United States, Russia or China detonate a nuclear device before April 1, 2026?
5%chance
0 comments
106 forecasters
Before 2026, will the White House launch a multi-billion dollar moonshot initiative to accelerate artificial general intelligence (AGI), as announced in an official White House press release?
20%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
82 comments
2.1k forecasters
Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?
6%chance
13 comments
60 forecasters
Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?
4%chance
2% this week
Key Factors
0 comments
108 forecasters
Will Fathom Radiant ship a commercial product before 2026?
8%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.