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Announcing the Winners of the Q1 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

7
22 comments
Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament
4 comments
13 forecasters

Will alternative protein have a market share above 25% of that of meat before 2035?

1%chance
4 comments
86 forecasters

Will soybeans be successfully de-allergenized before 2030?

27.8%chance
69 comments
295 forecasters

Will there be a breakthrough in accurately predicting protein structure before 2031?

99%chance

Winners of the Biosecurity Tournament Short-Term Phase

7
22 comments
Biosecurity Tournament

Economist 2021 Tournament Winners

7
55 comments
Economist 2021
9 comments
62 forecasters

What proportion of well-known QSRs will offer a cultivated meat product in 2026?

Current estimate
0.0366%
condition

2030: Synth protein fiber cheaper than nylon?

2 forecasters
if yes
if no

Synthetic protein fibers 10% of production?

Oct 2033

Synthetic protein fibers 10% of production?

Oct 2059
0 comments
2
2 forecasters
Synthetic Biology at Scale
4 comments
10 forecasters

Will there be an open-source repository of tools for alternative protein production before 2030?

50%chance
condition

2030: open-source repo for alt-protein?

4 forecasters
if yes
if no

2035: alternative protein market share >25%?

55%
55%

2035: alternative protein market share >25%?

50%
50%
0 comments
4
4 forecasters
Synthetic Biology at Scale