Respiratory Outlook July Update: Screwworm continues US spread as Ebola outbreak surges in DRC40 comments
Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the contiguous US, before 2027?66% chance755 comments3939 forecasters66%chance
What will be the average performance on ANIMA for AI models released between June 2026 and June 2027?Annulled100100 comments105105 forecastersAnnulled
Will the Save Our Bacon Act be enacted into law before July 2027?10% chance333 comments5252 forecasters10%chance
Will there be a Cockroach Janta Party protest with at least 20,000 participants before 2027?50% chance20 comments77 forecasters50%chance
How many New World Screwworm animal cases will be confirmed in the US in 2026?125 animal cases (85.4 - 202)21111 comments1414 forecasters125 animal cases (85.4 - 202)
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?26% chance242222 comments329329 forecasters26%chance
How many of the top 2026 AI labs will reference animal welfare in their models' guidelines at the end of 2034?20 comments4141 forecasters
What will be the average performance on ANIMA for AI models released between June 2026 and June 2027?74.7 (70.9 - 78.4)10 comments4040 forecasters74.7 (70.9 - 78.4)
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?25% chance374545 comments468468 forecasters25%chance
How many of Europe's top 20 grocery retailers will have public shrimp welfare commitments before July 2027?8 retailers (5 - 11)10 comments3939 forecasters8 retailers (5 - 11)
How much funding will Wild Animal Initiative receive in 2026?3.86 $m (3.05 - 5.08)10 comments4242 forecasters3.86 $m (3.05 - 5.08)
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?40173173 comments280280 forecasters
How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Animal Welfare in 2030?89.2M $ (40.5M - 184M)211 comment1616 forecasters89.2M $ (40.5M - 184M)
Will a UK public body use an AI-generated map to identify areas with sufficient ecological monitoring coverage for trend analysis before 2030?75% chance22 comments1818 forecasters75%chance
How many seats will each party win in the Next Australian federal election (2028)133 comments33 forecasters
When will any type of dog have a life expectancy at birth of 30 years or more?Nov 2073 (Dec 2053 - 2097)1222 comments3737 forecastersNov 2073 (Dec 2053 - 2097)