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Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?

41

183 183 comments

285

285 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

30% chance

25

334

334 forecasters

30%chance

How many New World Screwworm animal cases will be confirmed in the US in 2027?

52.2 cases (25.2 - 104)

2

12

12 forecasters

52.2 cases

(25.2 - 104)

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

30% chance

38

472

472 forecasters

30%chance

AI Forecasting in 2026: What 11 Analyses Say

3

Can you forecast the future of science?

6

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

39% chance

61

425

425 forecasters

39%chance

Forecasting the Future of Animals: $3,400 in prizes

9

Respiratory Outlook July Update: Screwworm continues US spread as Ebola outbreak surges in DRC

4

Will the Save Our Bacon Act be enacted into law before July 2027?

3% chance

3

61

61 forecasters

3%chance

Announcing the Global Health Monitor 2026/27

4

How many of the top 2026 AI labs will reference animal welfare in their models' guidelines at the end of 2034?

2

47

47 forecasters

How many New World Screwworm animal cases will be confirmed in the US in 2026?

64.5 animal cases (53.5 - 89.2)

2

16

16 forecasters

64.5 animal cases

(53.5 - 89.2)

What will be the average performance on ANIMA for AI models released between June 2026 and June 2027?

76.2 (72.5 - 80.2)

1

42

42 forecasters

76.2

(72.5 - 80.2)

How much funding will Wild Animal Initiative receive in 2026?

4.27 $m (3.27 - 5.28)

2

47

47 forecasters

4.27 $m

(3.27 - 5.28)

How many of Europe's top 20 grocery retailers will have public shrimp welfare commitments before July 2027?

9 retailers (7 - 11)

1

45

45 forecasters

9 retailers

(7 - 11)

Will there be a Cockroach Janta Party protest with at least 20,000 participants before 2027?

50% chance

2

14

14 forecasters

50%chance

A decrease in US meat production by 2025?

result: no

23

171

171 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will slaughterhouses be banned in the United Kingdom in 2050?

10% chance

16

70

70 forecasters

10%chance

Announcing the US Midterms 2026 Tournament - $10,000 Prize Pool

10

Will a UK public body use an AI-generated map to identify areas with sufficient ecological monitoring coverage for trend analysis before 2030?

80% chance

27

27 forecasters

80%chance

Predict experts' response to "Which is the better approach to measuring & comparing LMIC interventions affecting multiple outcomes?" (WELL_04)