Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the contiguous US, before 2027?70% chance855 comments3030 forecasters70%chance
Will there be a Cockroach Janta Party protest with at least 20,000 participants before 2027?50% chance0 comments44 forecasters50%chance
How many New World Screwworm animal cases will be confirmed in the US in 2026?61.7 animal cases (30.4 - 162)133 comments88 forecasters61.7 animal cases (30.4 - 162)
How many seats will each party win in the Next Australian federal election (2028)122 comments33 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?30% chance242222 comments329329 forecasters30%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?27% chance364545 comments468468 forecasters27%chance
Will a UK public body use an AI-generated map to identify areas with sufficient ecological monitoring coverage for trend analysis before 2030?50% chance22 comments1111 forecasters50%chance
Will octopus farms yield 3000 tonnes of octopuses in one year before 2026?3% chance977 comments1717 forecasters3%chance
Will California’s 2018 Proposition 12, "Prevention of Cruelty to Farm Animals Act", be in effect on January 1, 2026?result: yes105105 comments107107 forecastersResolvedYes
Will California’s 2018 Proposition 12, "Prevention of Cruelty to Farm Animals Act", be in effect on January 1, 2026?result: yes455 comments155155 forecastersResolvedYes
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?39172172 comments275275 forecasters
Will any part of California's Prop 12 or Related Measures be nullified before January 20th, 2029?56% chance199 comments88 forecasters56%chance
By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?36% chance602323 comments425425 forecasters36%chance