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AI IPO Windfall: Forecasting Funding by Cause Area

3

How many New World Screwworm animal cases will be confirmed in the US in 2027?

131 cases (66.6 - 302)

2

17

17 forecasters

131 cases

(66.6 - 302)

How many New World Screwworm animal cases will be confirmed in the US in 2026?

109 animal cases (81.8 - 155)

2

19

19 forecasters

109 animal cases

(81.8 - 155)

Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the contiguous US, before 2027?

76% chance

7

42

42 forecasters

76%chance

Will at least one additional U.S. state enact a cage-free egg requirement before July 2027?

10% chance

1

30

30 forecasters

10%chance

FutureEval Bot Tournament Resources Page

4

How many shrimp per year will be covered by SWP's Humane Slaughter Initiative agreements on July 1, 2027?

8.1B Shrimp (7.4B - 9.2B)

24

24 forecasters

8.1B Shrimp

(7.4B - 9.2B)

What percentage of companies globally will fulfill their pre-2026 cage-free commitments in 2026 and 2027?

12.1% (8.05 - 16.7)

1

25

25 forecasters

12.1%

(8.05 - 16.7)

What percentage of companies globally will fulfill their pre-2026 broiler commitments in 2026 and 2027?

4.19% (2.22 - 7.39)

25

25 forecasters

4.19%

(2.22 - 7.39)

How much funding will Wild Animal Initiative receive in 2026?

3.84 $m (2.8 - 5.16)

2

55

55 forecasters

3.84 $m

(2.8 - 5.16)

What will be the average performance on ANIMA for AI models released between June 2026 and June 2027?

72 (70.5 - 76.9)

1

49

49 forecasters

72

(70.5 - 76.9)

Five years after AGI, how many animals will be slaughtered in factory farms?

84.7B billion animals (55.5B - 110B)

4

22

22 forecasters

84.7B billion animals

(55.5B - 110B)

How many of the top 2026 AI labs will reference animal welfare in their models' guidelines at the end of 2034?

2

57

57 forecasters

Will AI Cause Human Extinction? Pro Forecasters Land at 7.5%. Our Most Dedicated X-Risk Forecasters Say 22%.

3

AI Forecasting in 2026: What 11 Analyses Say

4

Economist 2021 Series Announcement

8

Will there be a 50% decline in global meat production by 2040?

9% chance

17

122

122 forecasters

9%chance

How many of Europe's top 20 grocery retailers will have public shrimp welfare commitments before July 2027?

11 retailers (9 - 12)

1

53

53 forecasters

11 retailers

(9 - 12)

Will the Save Our Bacon Act be enacted into law before July 2027?

3% chance

3

77

77 forecasters

3%chance

Will there be a Cockroach Janta Party protest with at least 20,000 participants before 2027?

20% chance

2

25

25 forecasters

20%chance

A decrease in US meat production by 2025?

result: no

23

171

171 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will a UK public body use an AI-generated map to identify areas with sufficient ecological monitoring coverage for trend analysis before 2030?

78% chance

29

29 forecasters

78%chance