Will plant-based meat and seafood reach 10% of US retail packaged meat dollar sales before 2031?10 comments22 forecasters%chance
How many additional US states will enact bans on cultivated meat before July 2027?10 comments22 forecasters
Will a new cultivated meat product receive regulatory approval for commercial sale before July 2027?10 comments33 forecasters%chance
How many cattle will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?8967 (2609 - 34.2k)744 comments4242 forecasters8967 (2609 - 34.2k)
Will McDonald's be the first top global QSR to feature a cultivated meat product on their menu before 2027?5% chance644 comments8080 forecasters5%chance
Will octopus farms yield 3000 tonnes of octopuses in one year before 2026?3% chance977 comments1717 forecasters3%chance
Will California’s 2018 Proposition 12, "Prevention of Cruelty to Farm Animals Act", be in effect on January 1, 2026?result: yes105105 comments107107 forecastersResolvedYes
Will California’s 2018 Proposition 12, "Prevention of Cruelty to Farm Animals Act", be in effect on January 1, 2026?result: yes455 comments155155 forecastersResolvedYes
Will the 'Ending Agricultural Trade Suppression' Act pass in the US House of Representatives by January 3, 2024?result: no33 comments1919 forecastersResolvedNo
Will any part of California's Prop 12 or Related Measures be nullified before January 20th, 2029?56% chance199 comments88 forecasters56%chance
What proportion of well-known QSRs will offer a cultivated meat product in 2026?0.0132% (0.00459 - 0.0644)499 comments6464 forecasters0.0132% (0.00459 - 0.0644)
What will be the average production cost per kg of cell-cultured chicken cell biomass at the end of the following years (between 2026-2051) across all large-scale plants in the world?11 comment11 forecaster
Will there be a 50% decline in global meat production by 2040?10% chance172828 comments121121 forecasters10%chance
Will an incumbent traditional animal protein company take out a full-page ad that criticises plant-based, or cultivated meat, in either the NYT, WSJ or WaPo by 2023?54% chance91313 comments8282 forecastersAmbiguous
How many of the top 2026 AI labs will reference animal welfare in their models' guidelines at the end of 2034?0 comments33 forecasters
How many American state ballots will have a factory farm ban on them by the end of 2030 due to Pro-Animal Future?0 comments11 forecaster
Will a second US city ban factory farming within its boundaries by the end of 2025?5% chance10 comments11 forecaster5%chance
How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Animal Welfare in 2025?83.2M $ (54.3M - 133M)333 comments1818 forecasters83.2M $ (54.3M - 133M)