Will octopus farms yield 3000 tonnes of octopuses in one year before 2026?3% chance977 comments1717 forecasters3%chance
Will there be a 50% decline in global meat production by 2040?10% chance172828 comments121121 forecasters10%chance
How many of the top 2026 AI labs will reference animal welfare in their models' guidelines at the end of 2034?0 comments33 forecasters
How many American state ballots will have a factory farm ban on them by the end of 2030 due to Pro-Animal Future?0 comments11 forecaster
Will commercial farming of cows, pigs and chickens for meat be prohibited in the US before 2041?1% chance71717 comments127127 forecasters1%chance
What percent of voters will vote in favor of the Swiss 2022 Bio Suisse Animal Welfare referendum question?46 (40.2 - 51.9)688 comments3838 forecasters46 (40.2 - 51.9)
When will 5,000 companies worldwide pledge to remove cages from their egg supply chains?Mar 2032 (06 May 2028 - >Nov 2037)755 comments2828 forecastersMar 2032 (06 May 2028 - >Nov 2037)
How many chickens will be slaughtered for meat globally in the following years?121010 comments8181 forecasters
Will alternative protein have a market share above 25% of that of meat before 2035?4.5% chance244 comments1414 forecasters4.5%chance
What will be the net percentage of people who believe it's acceptable to buy fur by 2031?7.97% (-0.696 - 16.6)61111 comments3232 forecasters7.97% (-0.696 - 16.6)
Will commercial animal farming be prohibited in the US before 2041?1% chance185858 comments176176 forecasters1%chance
Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?result: no8787 comments8585 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?result: no944 comments8181 forecastersResolvedNo
If the price of the highest-quality hamburger-imitating plant products fell by 10% everywhere, how many more/fewer chickens would be consumed globally in the year 2030 (as a +/- percent)?0 comments
Does $100k to fund plant-based hamburger R&D have a greater animal welfare benefit than $100k to corporate animal welfare campaigns for chickens?52.4% chance0 comments33 forecasters52.4%chance
Predict the median of experts' beliefs over "Does $100k to fund plant-based hamburger R&D have a greater animal welfare benefit than $100k to corporate animal welfare campaigns for chickens?"0 comments
Does $100k to fund cultured meat development have a greater animal welfare benefit than $100k to corporate animal welfare campaigns for chickens?42% chance0 comments66 forecasters42%chance
Will the three-year average of livestock production subsidies fall below $150M/year by 2030?17% chance333 comments4040 forecasters17%chance
Predict the median of experts' beliefs over "Does $100k to fund cultured meat development have a greater animal welfare benefit than $100k to corporate animal welfare campaigns for chickens?"0.726 0-100% stated probability (0.684 - 0.767)0 comments22 forecasters0.726 0-100% stated probability (0.684 - 0.767)