FAQ

Why is the measure of capabilities progress both coarse and subjective? We think it is hard to find a meaningful measure of broad-based capabilities progress. We rely on expert response to narrative scenarios to create a resolvable yet broad notion of AI capabilities progress.
Why are we forecasting energy consumption and not GDP? Measuring output could be difficult in a world with rapid AI progress (due to unmeasured quality change, new goods, etc.). We choose an alternative proxy. We would love to hear your ideas for alternative proxies at the event and over email.

Please email Connacher (connacher.murphy@gmail.com) with your questions and quibbles.

AI scenarios

We define three scenarios for different levels of AI development:

Slow progress
Moderate progress
Rapid progress

In the following scenarios, we consider the development of AI capabilities, not adoption. Regulation, social norms, or extended integration processes could all prevent the application of AI to all tasks of which it is capable.

Reasonable people may disagree with our characterization of what constitutes slow, moderate, or rapid AI progress. Or they may expect to see slow progress observed with some AI capabilities and moderate or fast progress in others. Nevertheless, we ask you to select which scenario, in sum, you feel best represents your views.

We consider a capability to have been achieved if there exists an AI system that can do it:

Inexpensively: with a computational cost not exceeding the salary of an appropriate 2026 human professional using the same amount of time to attempt the task.
Reliably: what this means is context-dependent, but typically we mean as reliably as, or more reliably than, a human or humans who do the same tasks professionally.

The scenarios refer to capability at the end of 2030. Read more about each scenario below.

Slow Progress

By the end of 2030 in this slower-progress future, AI is a capable assisting technology for humans; it can automate basic research tasks, generate mediocre creative content, assist in vacation planning, and conduct relatively standard tasks that are currently (2026) performed by humans in homes and factories.

Researchers can benefit from literature reviews on almost any topic, written at the level of a capable PhD student, yet AI systems rarely produce novel and feasible solutions to difficult problems. As a result, genuine scientific breakthroughs remain almost entirely the result of human-run labs and grant cycles. Nevertheless, AI tools can support other research tasks (e.g., copy editing and data cleaning and analysis), freeing up time for researchers to focus on higher-impact tasks. AI can handle roughly half of all freelance software-engineering jobs that would take an experienced human approximately 8 hours to complete in 2026, and if a company augments its customer service team with AI, it can expect the model to be able to resolve most complaints.

Writers enjoy a small productivity boost; models can turn out respectable short stories, but full-length novels still need heavy human rewriting to avoid plot holes or stylistic drift. AI can make a 3-minute song that humans would blindly judge to be of equal quality to a song released by a current (2026) major record label. At home, an AI system can draft emails, top up your online grocery cart, or collate news articles, and so long as the task would take a human an hour or less and is well-scoped, it performs on par with a competent human assistant. With a few prompts, AI can create an itinerary and make bookings for a weeklong family vacation that feels curated by a discerning travel agent.

Self-driving car capabilities have advanced, but none have achieved true level-5 autonomy.* Meanwhile, household robots can make a cup of coffee and unload and load a dishwasher in some modern homes, but they can't do it as fast as most humans and they require a consistent environment and occasional human guidance. In advanced factories, autonomous systems can perform specific, repetitive tasks that require precision but little adaptability (e.g., wafer handling in semiconductor fabrication facilities).

* Level 5 autonomy is defined as, "can operate the vehicle on-road anywhere within its region of the world and under all road conditions in which a conventional vehicle can be reasonably operated by a typically skilled human driver. This means, for example, that there are no design-based weather, time-of-day, or geographical restrictions on where and when the ADS can operate the vehicle. However, there may be conditions not manageable by a driver in which the ADS would also be unable to complete a given trip (e.g., white-out snow storm, flooded roads, glare ice, etc.) until or unless the adverse conditions clear." (Source)

Moderate Progress

By the end of 2030, in this middle-of-the-road future, AI is capable of being an effective collaborator across creative, corporate, and technical arenas.

R&D teams can lean on autonomous lab systems with human research assistants to make rapid advances in solar-cell chemistries or fusion-reactor components, although the inventions are improvements rather than revolutions. Almost all freelance software-engineering jobs requiring 5 days or fewer of effort from experienced humans can be tackled by AI, and if a company wants to replace nearly all of its human customer service team with AI, it can probably get away with it, provided customers are not opposed in principle to AI customer service.

AI can draft 100-thousand-word novels solid enough for current (2026) mainstream publishers to release with typical levels of editing by a human publisher and can create a 5-minute song that humans would blindly judge to have breakout potential, exceptional emotional depth, and be of equal quality to the best songs released by current (2026) record labels. An AI agent can not only craft a well-curated weeklong vacation itinerary, but it can also make last-minute adjustments to bookings in response to unexpected weather, travel delays, or individual requests. Boardrooms are still run by people, but executive teams can delegate multiday operational projects to agentic software that reliably juggles vendors, budgets, and contingencies.

Level-5 robo-taxis that can go anywhere a human driver can go finally exist, as do robots that can navigate any home in the US, make a cup of coffee and unload and load a dishwasher as fast and reliably as most humans and without any human guidance. Robots in advanced factories can adapt to different tasks without extensive reprogramming or equipment changes, making real-time decisions, and have increased physical mobility.

Rapid Progress

By the end of 2030, in the rapid-progress world, AI systems are capable of competing with the best human minds and workers, and can surpass them.

Human creativity and leadership remain valued, but mostly for setting high-level vision; day-to-day execution can be left to silicon-based systems. Autonomous researchers can collapse years-long research timelines into days, weeks, or months, creating game-changing technologies, such as materials that revolutionize energy storage, or bespoke cancer cures. No human freelance software engineer can outperform AI. The same goes for customer service (e.g., call center and support chat), paralegal, and administrative workers (e.g., bookkeepers or scheduling assistants).

Indeed, models have become so capable that AI can create an album of the same caliber as the Grammy Album of the Year. Additionally, a single AI agent can generate a Pulitzer- (or Booker Prize-) caliber novel according to current (2025) standards, adapt the book into an engaging two-hour movie, negotiate the resulting book and movie contracts, and launch the marketing campaigns for both while its sibling agents manage the book publishing company and movie studio at the level of highly competent CEOs.

Not only do Level-5 robo-taxis exist, but they are, on average, 99.9% safer than human-piloted cars and can venture anywhere off-road that a competent human driver can. Meanwhile, robots can navigate an arbitrary home anywhere in the world, make a cup of the most popular local hot beverage, clean and put away the dishes according to the local custom, fix any plumbing issues that arise while they're doing the dishes, and they can do it all faster and more reliably than most humans and without human guidance. Robots in advanced factories can autonomously perform the full range of tasks requiring the highest levels of dexterity, coordination, and adaptive decision-making.

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