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US Democracy Index

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Before 2030, will a commercially available, general-purpose robot capable of learning new tasks via video be priced under $20,000 USD?

51%chance

6% this week

Key Factors

8 comments

74 forecasters

What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years?

11 comments

81 forecasters

Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?

91%chance

4% this week

Key Factors

44 comments

434 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

28%chance

19 comments

35 forecasters

When will a primarily-AI-made movie accomplish these types of success?

5 comments

26 forecasters

How many of the "priority paths" identified by 80,000hours will still be priority paths in 2030?

Current estimate

5.64 paths

8 comments

23 forecasters

Will it be possible to order flying taxis in at least 5 cities before 2029?

4%chance

169 comments

245 forecasters

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?

Futurama30.6%

AI-Dystopia24.4%

Singularia19%

23 comments

413 forecasters

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

35%chance

19 comments

69 forecasters

Before 2030, will a commercially available, general-purpose robot capable of learning new tasks via video be priced under $20,000 USD?

What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years?

Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

When will a primarily-AI-made movie accomplish these types of success?

How many of the "priority paths" identified by 80,000hours will still be priority paths in 2030?

Will it be possible to order flying taxis in at least 5 cities before 2029?

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years?

Before 2030, will a commercially available, general-purpose robot capable of learning new tasks via video be priced under $20,000 USD?

What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years?

Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

When will a primarily-AI-made movie accomplish these types of success?

How many of the "priority paths" identified by 80,000hours will still be priority paths in 2030?

Will it be possible to order flying taxis in at least 5 cities before 2029?

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years?