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8 comments
74 forecasters

What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years?

20 comments
187 forecasters

What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years?

44 comments
436 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

30%chance
24 comments
82 forecasters

Before 2030, will a commercially available, general-purpose robot capable of learning new tasks via video be priced under $20,000 USD?

50%chance

Key Factors

8 comments
22 forecasters

Will it be possible to order flying taxis in at least 5 cities before 2029?

2%chance
5 comments
26 forecasters

How many of the "priority paths" identified by 80,000hours will still be priority paths in 2030?

Current estimate
5.14 paths
19 comments
35 forecasters

When will a primarily-AI-made movie accomplish these types of success?

00

Announcing the new Higher Education Series!

4
0 comments
14 comments
60 forecasters

By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus?

11 comments
85 forecasters

Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?

91%chance

Key Factors