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Artificial Intelligence
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8
comments
74
forecasters
What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years?
20
comments
187
forecasters
What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years?
44
comments
436
forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
30%
chance
24
comments
82
forecasters
Before 2030, will a commercially available, general-purpose robot capable of learning new tasks via video be priced under $20,000 USD?
50%
chance
Key Factors
China's government support for robotics
Research labs are making big progress on video and autonomous learning
1X Neo robot prototype shows promising capabilities
8
comments
22
forecasters
Will it be possible to order flying taxis in at least 5 cities before 2029?
2%
chance
5
comments
26
forecasters
How many of the "priority paths" identified by 80,000hours will still be priority paths in 2030?
Current estimate
5.14 paths
19
comments
35
forecasters
When will a primarily-AI-made movie accomplish these types of success?
00
Announcing the new Higher Education Series!
4
0
comments
14
comments
60
forecasters
By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus?
11
comments
85
forecasters
Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?
91%
chance
Key Factors
One AI victory suffices for prediction win
Bots' strong performance in recent Metaculus Cup
More tournaments increase AI's chances
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