• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
Feed Home
πŸ‘₯
Communities
πŸ†
Leaderboards
Topics
πŸ—³οΈ
US Democracy Index
❓
Top Questions
⏳
AI 2027
πŸ—žοΈ
In the News
🦾
AI Forecasting Benchmark
πŸ“ˆ
Indexes
πŸ’Ž
Metaculus Cup
🌍
AI Pathways
πŸ›οΈ
POTUS Predictions
categories
🦠
Health & Pandemics
🌱
Environment & Climate
☒️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
πŸ€–
Artificial Intelligence
See all categories
  • About
  • API
  • FAQ
  • forecasting resources
  • For Journalists
  • Careers
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature
24 comments
81 forecasters

Before 2030, will a commercially available, general-purpose robot capable of learning new tasks via video be priced under $20,000 USD?

50%chance

Key Factors

11 comments
81 forecasters

Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?

92%chance

Key Factors

8 comments
74 forecasters

What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years?

44 comments
436 forecasters

RagnarΓΆk Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

28%chance
8 comments
23 forecasters

Will it be possible to order flying taxis in at least 5 cities before 2029?

2%chance
2% this week
20 comments
187 forecasters

What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years?

6 comments
33 forecasters

What will be the world population in the following years?

169 comments
247 forecasters

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?

Futurama30.1%
AI-Dystopia24.9%
Singularia20%
19 comments
35 forecasters

When will a primarily-AI-made movie accomplish these types of success?

00
5 comments
26 forecasters

How many of the "priority paths" identified by 80,000hours will still be priority paths in 2030?

Current estimate
5.87 paths