Questions
Tournaments
Services
News
Questions
Tournaments
Questions
Questions
More
Log in
Sign Up
a
/
文
Log in
Sign Up
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🏆
Leaderboards
Topics
🗳️
US Democracy Index
❓
Top Questions
⏳
AI 2027
🗞️
In the News
🦾
AI Forecasting Benchmark
📈
Indexes
💎
Metaculus Cup
🌍
AI Pathways
🏛️
POTUS Predictions
categories
🦠
Health & Pandemics
🌱
Environment & Climate
☢️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
See all categories
10
comments
49
forecasters
Which book will top the New York Times Hardcover Fiction list for the week of November 2, 2025?
Remain: A Supernatural Love Story
result:
Yes
Other
54%
The Secret of Secrets
12.5%
6 others
22%
8
comments
132
forecasters
By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?
25%
chance
169
comments
245
forecasters
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?
Futurama
30.6%
AI-Dystopia
24.4%
Singularia
19%
2 others
26%
20
comments
187
forecasters
What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years?
23
comments
413
forecasters
By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?
35%
chance
Contributed by the
AI 2025 Forecasting Survey
community.
3
comments
12
forecasters
What will be the best performance on OSWorld by December 31st 2025?
Current estimate
73.1%
10
comments
119
forecasters
What will the world population be in the following years?
6
comments
33
forecasters
What will be the world population in the following years?
6
comments
99
forecasters
Will we reach 2050 without the development of artificial general intelligence and without a major global conflict occurring?
5%
chance
2
comments
4
forecasters
Which science fiction novel will win a Hugo Award in 2024?
Some Desperate Glory - Emily Tesh
result:
Yes
Translation State - Ann Leckie
22.2%
Adventures of Amina al-Sirafi - Chakraborty
22.1%
3 others
45%
Load More