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Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?

Futurama29.7%

AI-Dystopia24.6%

Singularia18.5%

8 comments

131 forecasters

By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?

40%chance

47 comments

126 forecasters

Will the world remain "normal" through 2030, according to specified criteria?

70%chance

4% this week

‘Five Years After AGI’ Focus Week

43 43 comments

Five Years After AGI

6 comments

32 forecasters

What will be the world population in the following years?

20 comments

184 forecasters

What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years?

6 comments

98 forecasters

Will we reach 2050 without the development of artificial general intelligence and without a major global conflict occurring?

5%chance

21 comments

404 forecasters

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

33%chance

14 comments

44 forecasters

Will Metaculus anticipate the biggest unforeseen trend of the 2020s?

29.4%chance

10 comments

119 forecasters

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?

By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?

Will the world remain "normal" through 2030, according to specified criteria?

‘Five Years After AGI’ Focus Week

What will be the world population in the following years?

What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years?

Will we reach 2050 without the development of artificial general intelligence and without a major global conflict occurring?

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

Will Metaculus anticipate the biggest unforeseen trend of the 2020s?

What will the world population be in the following years?

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?

By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?

Will the world remain "normal" through 2030, according to specified criteria?

‘Five Years After AGI’ Focus Week

What will be the world population in the following years?

What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years?

Will we reach 2050 without the development of artificial general intelligence and without a major global conflict occurring?

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

Will Metaculus anticipate the biggest unforeseen trend of the 2020s?

What will the world population be in the following years?