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Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.

1 comment
9 forecasters

What will be the best score on Cybench by December 31st 2025?

Current estimate
81.5%

Contributed by the Gary Marcus's AI Forecasts community.

0 comments
3 forecasters

Will a large-scale cyberattack in which Generative AI plays an important causal role occur by December 31, 2025?

19%chance
12 comments
112 forecasters

Pandemic series: a significant flu pandemic by 2025?

resultNo
169 comments
247 forecasters

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?

Futurama29.1%
AI-Dystopia25.3%
Singularia20.3%
46 comments
238 forecasters

Pandemic series: a major naturally-originated pandemic by 2026?

10%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

23 comments
413 forecasters

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

35%chance

Contributed by the Gary Marcus's AI Forecasts community.

0 comments
2 forecasters

Will there be a "GPT-5 level" model, as judged by community consensus, released by December 31, 2025?

99.9%chance

Contributed by the Gary Marcus's AI Forecasts community.

0 comments
1 forecaster

Will Sora continue to have trouble with physics in 2025?

0 comments
9 forecasters

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2030?

Your forecast of Crowd Median70%
Your forecast69%

Metaculus's First Spanish-Language Contest: Kiko Llaneras Tournament šŸ”®

8
66 comments