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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature
169 comments
245 forecasters

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?

Futurama30.6%
AI-Dystopia24.4%
Singularia19%
23 comments
413 forecasters

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

35%chance

Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.

1 comment
9 forecasters

What will be the best score on Cybench by December 31st 2025?

Current estimate
82.6%
8 comments
84 forecasters

Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q3 - Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2018

resultYes
12 comments
112 forecasters

Pandemic series: a significant flu pandemic by 2025?

resultNo
condition

CTs AI Admin Disempowerment Before 2030

17 forecasters
if yes
if no

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

26%
26%

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

5%
5%
4
11 comment
17
17 forecasters
Conditional Trees: AI Risk

Contributed by the Gary Marcus's AI Forecasts community.

0 comments
3 forecasters

Will a large-scale cyberattack in which Generative AI plays an important causal role occur by December 31, 2025?

19%chance

Contributed by the Gary Marcus's AI Forecasts community.

0 comments
1 forecaster

Will Sora continue to have trouble with physics in 2025?

0 comments
9 forecasters

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2030?

Your forecast of Crowd Median70%
Your forecast69%

Metaculus's First Spanish-Language Contest: Kiko Llaneras Tournament 🔮

8
66 comments