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0
comments
101
forecasters
Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?
12%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
0
comments
100
forecasters
Will diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and China on nuclear risk reduction increase in 2025?
35%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
6
comments
8
forecasters
When will a satellite be equipped with a nuclear weapon?
Current estimate
Jan 2061
5
comments
59
forecasters
Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?
9%
chance
5%
this week
8
comments
67
forecasters
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before December 16, 2025?
3.3%
chance
9
comments
68
forecasters
Depending on the US supplying Ukraine with an ATACMS, Will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024?
ATACMS provided
result:
No
ATACMS not provided
Annulled
21
comments
300
forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
30%
chance
5%
this week
7
comments
526
forecasters
Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?
result
No
508
comments
1.2k
forecasters
Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?
result
No
11
comments
97
forecasters
Conditional on Russia attacking Ukraine with at least one nuclear weapon before 2024, will Russia use at least one nuclear weapon on Kyiv before 2024?
Annulled
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