Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?30% chance242323 comments332332 forecasters30%chance
How many terawatt-hours of electricity will be generated from nuclear power worldwide in the year 2030?3035 TWh (2486 - 3718)666 comments1717 forecasters3035 TWh (2486 - 3718)
Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2029?60% chance266 comments3939 forecasters60%chance
Will the US carry out sustained or high-intensity attacks against Iran in these years leading up to 2032?233 comments1515 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?28% chance374545 comments471471 forecasters28%chance
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before September 1, 2026?2% chance10 comments2525 forecasters2%chance
If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?20% chance41313 comments4545 forecasters20%chance
Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?5% chance255 comments4848 forecasters5%chance
If Russia detonates a nuclear device offensively before 2024, which cities will be ongoing battlegrounds at that time?152020 comments3333 forecasters
How many nuclear reactors will be in operation in the US on December 31, 2035?120 reactors (96.2 - 173)888 comments6565 forecasters120 reactors (96.2 - 173)
When will nuclear power be used for propulsion in space in a non-test capacity?Jan 2034 (28 Jun 2030 - >Jan 2036)121111 comments7777 forecastersJan 2034 (28 Jun 2030 - >Jan 2036)
When, in 2025, will the United States or Israel attack an Islamic Republic of Iran nuclear facility?30 Jun 2025 (14 Jun 2025 15:19 - >31 Dec 2025)88 comments1515 forecastersResolved13 Jun 2025 03:00 UTC
If these countries detonate a nuclear weapon by 2050, what proportion of those detonations will be countervalue?31313 comments3434 forecasters
Will the United States use a nuclear weapon before May 2026?result: no-266 comments4747 forecastersResolvedNo
Pandemic series: a major naturally-originated pandemic by 2026?result: yes434949 comments238238 forecastersResolvedYes
Conditional on Russia attacking Ukraine with at least one nuclear weapon before 2024, will Russia use at least one nuclear weapon on Kyiv before 2024?3.5% chance41111 comments9797 forecastersAnnulled
Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?result: no588 comments115115 forecastersResolvedNo
Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?result: no877 comments526526 forecastersResolvedNo
Pandemic series: a devastating bioterror attack by 2025?result: no1344 comments131131 forecastersResolvedNo