Pandemic series: a major naturally-originated pandemic by 2026?result: yes434949 comments238238 forecastersResolvedYes
How many HEMP attacks will occur by 2030, if at least one does?3 attacks (1.63 - 7.03)20 comments1414 forecasters3 attacks (1.63 - 7.03)
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?30% chance242222 comments329329 forecasters30%chance
If Russia detonates a nuclear device offensively before 2024, which cities will be ongoing battlegrounds at that time?152020 comments3333 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?27% chance364545 comments468468 forecasters27%chance
Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?result: no877 comments526526 forecastersResolvedNo
When, in 2025, will the United States or Israel attack an Islamic Republic of Iran nuclear facility?30 Jun 2025 (14 Jun 2025 15:19 - >31 Dec 2025)88 comments1515 forecasters30 Jun 2025 (14 Jun 2025 15:19 - >31 Dec 2025)
Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?result: no588 comments115115 forecastersResolvedNo
Conditional on Russia attacking Ukraine with at least one nuclear weapon before 2024, will Russia use at least one nuclear weapon on Kyiv before 2024?3.5% chance41111 comments9797 forecastersAnnulled
Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?result: no54508508 comments1.2k1.2k forecastersResolvedNo
Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2027?1.4% chance10 comments135135 forecasters1.4%chance
Will the United States use a nuclear weapon before May 2026?result: no-266 comments4747 forecastersResolvedNo
Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?result: no53225225 comments897897 forecastersResolvedNo
Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?result: no74290290 comments735735 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?25% chance355 comments3333 forecasters25%chance
Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?result: no241717 comments200200 forecastersResolvedNo
Will a US nuclear weapon be detonated in Russia before 2023?result: no212626 comments196196 forecastersResolvedNo
When will nuclear power be used for propulsion in space in a non-test capacity?May 2034 (23 Jan 2031 - >Jan 2036)121111 comments7575 forecastersMay 2034 (23 Jan 2031 - >Jan 2036)
Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?result: yes29221221 comments357357 forecastersResolvedYes
Will the US carry out sustained or high-intensity attacks against Iran in these years leading up to 2032?233 comments1111 forecasters
Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before October 1, 2024?result: no5454 comments3333 forecastersResolvedNo
Depending on the US supplying Ukraine with an ATACMS, Will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024?799 comments6868 forecasters