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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

If Iran does not have a nuclear weapon in 2030, what will Israel's 2031 GNI per capita be?

60.9 k$
23.4 k$ this week

Will Taiwan vote to restart the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant?

Key Factor

Voter turnout challenges in past referendums

69.8%chance

Key Factor

Voter turnout challenges in past referendums

Will North Korea test another nuclear device before 2026?

29%chance
condition

CTs Power-Seeking AI Shut Off

14 forecasters
if yes
if no

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

12%
12%

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

10%
10%
2
no comments0
Conditional Trees: AI Risk

Conditional on Russia attacking Ukraine with at least one nuclear weapon before 2024, will Russia use at least one nuclear weapon on Kyiv before 2024?

Annulled

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

22%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

25%chance

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?

resultNo

Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2029?

28%chance