Will an Electromagnetic spectrum-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?20% chance33 comments33 forecasters20%chance
Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before December 1, 2026?0 comments22 forecasters%chance
Will the United States detonate a nuclear weapon in Iran before December 1, 2026?0 comments11 forecaster%chance
Will the US carry out sustained or high-intensity attacks against Iran in these years leading up to 2032?233 comments1717 forecasters
Conditional on Russia attacking Ukraine with at least one nuclear weapon before 2024, will Russia use at least one nuclear weapon on Kyiv before 2024?3.5% chance41111 comments9797 forecastersAnnulled
How many nuclear weapons will exist globally in 2050?10k weapons (6715 - 15.1k)733 comments1717 forecasters10k weapons (6715 - 15.1k)
What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years?141515 comments9898 forecasters
Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?result: no54508508 comments1.2k1.2k forecastersResolvedNo
Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2029?60% chance266 comments4040 forecasters60%chance
Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?result: no241717 comments200200 forecastersResolvedNo
Will a US nuclear weapon be detonated in Russia before 2023?result: no212626 comments196196 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 1000Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?8% chance-122 comments1919 forecasters8%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?25% chance342727 comments231231 forecasters25%chance
Will there be at least one fatality from nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if any detonation occurs?24% chance81212 comments6767 forecasters24%chance
If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?1499 comments314314 forecasters
Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?result: no74290290 comments735735 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the United States use a nuclear weapon before May 2026?result: no-266 comments4747 forecastersResolvedNo
By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?40% chance612323 comments431431 forecasters40%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?29.2% chance301515 comments285285 forecasters29.2%chance
At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?75% chance10 comments3636 forecasters75%chance