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Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

49 forecasters

Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?

5%chance

7% this week

46 comments

149 forecasters

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?

Current estimate

1.1 weapons

8 comments

115 forecasters

Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?

resultNo

11 comments

97 forecasters

Conditional on Russia attacking Ukraine with at least one nuclear weapon before 2024, will Russia use at least one nuclear weapon on Kyiv before 2024?

Annulled

21 comments

73 forecasters

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

South Korea3%

Saudi Arabia2%

Ukraine1%

9 comments

109 forecasters

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran63%

Saudi Arabia14%

South Korea9%

508 comments

1.2k forecasters

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?

resultNo

14 comments

1.1k forecasters

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?

1.2%chance

20 comments

33 forecasters

If Russia detonates a nuclear device offensively before 2024, which cities will be ongoing battlegrounds at that time?

SevastopolAnnulled

Luhansk cityAnnulled

DzhankoiAnnulled