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0 comments
101 forecasters

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?

12%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
100 forecasters

Will diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and China on nuclear risk reduction increase in 2025?

35%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

6 comments
8 forecasters

When will a satellite be equipped with a nuclear weapon?

Current estimate
Jan 2061
5 comments
59 forecasters

Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?

9%chance
5% this week
8 comments
67 forecasters

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before December 16, 2025?

3.3%chance
9 comments
68 forecasters

Depending on the US supplying Ukraine with an ATACMS, Will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024?

ATACMS providedresult: No
ATACMS not providedAnnulled
21 comments
300 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

30%chance
5% this week
7 comments
526 forecasters

Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?

resultNo
508 comments
1.2k forecasters

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?

resultNo
11 comments
97 forecasters

Conditional on Russia attacking Ukraine with at least one nuclear weapon before 2024, will Russia use at least one nuclear weapon on Kyiv before 2024?

Annulled