If these countries detonate a nuclear weapon by 2050, what proportion of those detonations will be countervalue?31313 comments3434 forecasters
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before September 1, 2026?3% chance10 comments1919 forecasters3%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?25% chance242222 comments329329 forecasters25%chance
What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years?131010 comments9696 forecasters
When, in 2025, will the United States or Israel attack an Islamic Republic of Iran nuclear facility?30 Jun 2025 (14 Jun 2025 15:19 - >31 Dec 2025)88 comments1515 forecastersResolved13 Jun 2025 03:00 UTC
Five years after AGI, will nuclear deterrence no longer hold?40% chance51010 comments3535 forecasters40%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?25% chance374545 comments468468 forecasters25%chance
Will the US carry out sustained or high-intensity attacks against Iran in these years leading up to 2032?233 comments1414 forecasters
If Russia detonates a nuclear device offensively before 2024, which cities will be ongoing battlegrounds at that time?152020 comments3333 forecasters
Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?result: no588 comments115115 forecastersResolvedNo
Conditional on Russia attacking Ukraine with at least one nuclear weapon before 2024, will Russia use at least one nuclear weapon on Kyiv before 2024?3.5% chance41111 comments9797 forecastersAnnulled
How many nuclear reactors will be in operation in the US on December 31, 2035?132 reactors (98.1 - 187)888 comments6565 forecasters132 reactors (98.1 - 187)
Will the United States use a nuclear weapon before May 2026?result: no-266 comments4747 forecastersResolvedNo
If these countries are attacked by a nuclear weapon by 2030, how many cities in that country will be offensively attacked?266 comments4646 forecasters
Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?result: yes30221221 comments357357 forecastersResolvedYes
Will there be nuclear conflict between any of the US, China, and Taiwan before the following years?40 comments3535 forecasters
Pandemic series: a major naturally-originated pandemic by 2026?result: yes434949 comments238238 forecastersResolvedYes
Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?result: no54508508 comments1.2k1.2k forecastersResolvedNo
Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?result: no877 comments526526 forecastersResolvedNo