Questions
Tournaments
Services
News
Questions
Tournaments
Questions
Questions
More
Log in
Sign Up
a
/
文
Log in
Sign Up
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🏆
Leaderboards
Topics
🗳️
US Democracy Index
❓
Top Questions
⏳
AI 2027
🗞️
In the News
🦾
AI Forecasting Benchmark
📈
Indexes
💎
Metaculus Cup
🌍
AI Pathways
🏛️
POTUS Predictions
categories
🦠
Health & Pandemics
🌱
Environment & Climate
☢️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
See all categories
2
comments
52
forecasters
Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?
result
No
15
comments
282
forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?
29%
chance
11
comments
87
forecasters
How many nuclear weapons will there be in world stockpiles in the following years?
21
comments
73
forecasters
Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?
South Korea
3%
Saudi Arabia
2%
Saudi Arabia
Annulled
6 others
9
comments
111
forecasters
Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?
Iran
57%
Saudi Arabia
15%
South Korea
10%
7 others
10
comments
34
forecasters
Five years after AGI, will nuclear deterrence no longer hold?
30%
chance
14
comments
1.2k
forecasters
Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?
0.3%
chance
8
comments
115
forecasters
Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?
result
No
15
comments
144
forecasters
Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?
6%
chance
1
comment
14
forecasters
If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?
Latest estimate
2048
This question is closed for forecasting.
Load More