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US Democracy Index

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Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?

6%chance

Key Factors

17 comments

150 forecasters

Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?

9%chance

2 comments

52 forecasters

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

resultNo

9 comments

111 forecasters

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran50%

Saudi Arabia15%

South Korea10%

condition

14 forecasters

The Taiwan Tinderbox

21 comments

74 forecasters

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

South Korea3%

Saudi Arabia2%

Poland1%

63 comments

342 forecasters

Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?

9%chance

Key Factors

condition

US Says Will Use Nukes to Defend Taiwan?

17 forecasters

if yes

if no

2030: Does China Have 1000 Nukes?

60%

2030: Does China Have 1000 Nukes?

17 forecasters

28 forecasters

Will there be nuclear conflict between any of the US, China, and Taiwan before the following years?

20351.5%

20301%

0 comments

20 forecasters

Will China go back on its “no first use” nuclear weapons policy before the following years?

20355%

20303%

Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?

Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

China Nuclear Threat For Taiwan Interference?

US-China war before 2035?

US-China war before 2035?

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?

US Says Will Use Nukes to Defend Taiwan?

2030: Does China Have 1000 Nukes?

2030: Does China Have 1000 Nukes?

Will there be nuclear conflict between any of the US, China, and Taiwan before the following years?

Will China go back on its “no first use” nuclear weapons policy before the following years?

Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?

Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

China Nuclear Threat For Taiwan Interference?

US-China war before 2035?

US-China war before 2035?

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?

US Says Will Use Nukes to Defend Taiwan?

2030: Does China Have 1000 Nukes?

2030: Does China Have 1000 Nukes?

Will there be nuclear conflict between any of the US, China, and Taiwan before the following years?

Will China go back on its “no first use” nuclear weapons policy before the following years?