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21
comments
73
forecasters
Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?
South Korea
3%
Saudi Arabia
2.5%
Japan
1%
6 others
9
comments
109
forecasters
Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?
Iran
64%
Saudi Arabia
15%
South Korea
9%
7 others
8
comments
115
forecasters
Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?
result
No
14
comments
1.1k
forecasters
Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?
1.2%
chance
3
comments
81
forecasters
Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?
9%
chance
83
comments
402
forecasters
Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024?
result
No
8
comments
15
forecasters
When, in 2025, will the United States or Israel attack an Islamic Republic of Iran nuclear facility?
community
30 Jun 2025
result
13 Jun 2025 03:00
9
comments
307
forecasters
If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?
Ukraine
15%
Israel
13%
India
13%
5 others
2
comments
52
forecasters
Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?
result
No
14
comments
42
forecasters
How many nuclear weapon states will there be in 2030?
9
49%
10
38%
11
11%
4 others
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