0 comments
13 forecasters
Will the United States, Russia or China detonate a nuclear device before April 1, 2026?
Current estimate
Revealed tomorrow
0 comments
99 forecasters
Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?
20%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
0 comments
100 forecasters
Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?
5%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
13 comments
58 forecasters
Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?
5%chance
Key Factors
3 comments
1 forecaster
Will a frontier AI developer publicly accuse a Russian actor of stealing their model weights before 2030?
70%chance
0 comments
92 forecasters
Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?
5%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
0 comments
23 forecasters
Will there be a fatal clash between the military forces of the United States and Venezuela before March 1, 2026?
75%chance
4% this week
94 comments
94 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 31.00% on 2025-10-23 for the Metaculus question "Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?"?
resultYes
14 comments
21 forecasters
Will the Trump administration attempt to withdraw from key international arms control agreements in 2025?
12%chance
13% this week