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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature
8 comments
42 forecasters

Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?

15%chance
4% today

Key Factors

0 comments
99 forecasters

Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?

20%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

3 comments

Will a frontier AI developer publicly accuse a Russian actor of stealing their model weights before 2030?

Current estimate
Revealed in 5 days
0 comments
92 forecasters

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

17 comments
148 forecasters

Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?

9%chance
condition

China bans imports from Taiwan by 2030?

13 forecasters
if yes
if no

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

50%
50%

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

19%
19%
1
0 comments
13
13 forecasters
The Taiwan Tinderbox
14 comments
31 forecasters

On how many days in the following years will China carry out โ€œreactionaryโ€ air incursions into Taiwanโ€™s air defense identification zone?

94 comments
94 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 31.00% on 2025-10-23 for the Metaculus question "Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?"?

resultYes
0 comments
15 forecasters

Will there be a fatal clash between the military forces of the United States and Venezuela before March 1, 2026?

62%chance
12% this week
3 comments
41 forecasters

What will be the share of lithium processed in China in 2030?

Current estimate
61.3%

Key Factors