What will be the final value of the U.S. Democracy Threat Index for 2027-2028, conditional on control of Congress?0 comments1616 forecasters
Will the People's Republic of China blockade or quarantine Taiwan before September 1, 2026?7.5% chance0 comments1111 forecasters7.5%chance
Pandemic series: a major naturally-originated pandemic by 2026?result: yes434949 comments238238 forecastersResolvedYes
Will the U.S. Senate pass an Iran war powers resolution before August 1, 2026?0 comments22 forecasters%chance
How many confirmed deaths will be attributed to the US-Israel-Iran war over the course of 2026?66 comments22 forecasters
Will there be at least one INES Level 3 or higher event in 2026 listed by May 1, 2026?result: no122122 comments120120 forecastersResolvedNo
If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, will the US control Tehran within one year?3.3% chance63232 comments139139 forecasters3.3%chance
Will the United States attack Iran before April 2026?result: yes9103103 comments402402 forecastersResolvedYes
Will a Chinese fab achieve volume production at <N nm nodes before 2030?111010 comments5050 forecasters
Will the UK National Threat Level reduce from SEVERE before September 2026?25% chance21313 comments118118 forecasters25%chance
Will Trump bypass the US Congress and declare war on Iran before January 20, 2029?30% chance288 comments8181 forecasters30%chance
Will the United States strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?result: no10 comments5353 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the community prediction be higher than 8.60% on 2026-05-16 for the Metaculus question "Will China attack or blockade Taiwan during 2026?"?result: yes105105 comments105105 forecastersResolvedYes
Will the community prediction be higher than 35.00% on 2026-05-15 for the Metaculus question "Will the United States conduct a ground invasion of Iran before 2027?"?result: no9797 comments9494 forecastersResolvedNo
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before May 1, 2026?result: no1107107 comments107107 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026?result: no41010 comments7171 forecastersResolvedNo
How many distinct NATO member states will formally request Article 4 consultations citing the 2026 Iran conflict before May 1, 2026?0 member states (0 - 2)111111 comments112112 forecasters0 member states (0 - 2)
When will a sitting US President make a declaration about AI that meets the following criterion?111515 comments1717 forecasters
Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?85% chance544 comments5959 forecasters85%chance
When will nuclear fusion provide at least 0.1% of the world's primary energy?Mar 2048 (May 2040 - Jun 2059)201111 comments9999 forecastersMar 2048 (May 2040 - Jun 2059)