0 comments
101 forecasters
Will North Korea test another nuclear device before 2026?
17.2%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
0 comments
100 forecasters
Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?
5%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
0 comments
99 forecasters
Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?
20%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
0 comments
22 forecasters
Will the United States, Russia or China detonate a nuclear device before April 1, 2026?
3%chance
3% this week
82 comments
2.1k forecasters
Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?
6%chance
3 comments
2 forecasters
Will a frontier AI developer publicly accuse a Russian actor of stealing their model weights before 2030?
60%chance
10% this week
13 comments
66 forecasters
Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?
5%chance
Key Factors
0 comments
92 forecasters
Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?
5%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.