0 comments
99 forecasters
Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?
20%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
0 comments
100 forecasters
Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?
5%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
13 comments
58 forecasters
Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?
6.2%chance
8.8% this week
Key Factors
3 comments
1 forecaster
Will a frontier AI developer publicly accuse a Russian actor of stealing their model weights before 2030?
70%chance
0 comments
92 forecasters
Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?
5%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
0 comments
2 forecasters
By 2030-12-31, will the PRC seek control of TSMC's Taiwan ops (direct or indirect)?
17.1%chance
17% this week
94 comments
94 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 31.00% on 2025-10-23 for the Metaculus question "Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?"?
resultYes