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US Democracy Index

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What will be the share of lithium processed in China in 2030?

Current estimate

61.4%

0 comments

101 forecasters

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?

12%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

condition

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

2 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

19%

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

28%

1 1 comment

2 forecasters

0 comments

100 forecasters

Will diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and China on nuclear risk reduction increase in 2025?

35%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

98 forecasters

Will the Trump administration attempt to withdraw from key international arms control agreements in 2025?

20%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

97 forecasters

Will at least two of the United States, Russia or China mutually agree to decrease their nuclear stockpiles before 2026?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

97 forecasters

Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

20%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

94 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 31.00% on 2025-10-23 for the Metaculus question "Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?"?

47.5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

98 forecasters

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

5 comments

63 forecasters

Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?

8%chance

6% this week