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0
comments
101
forecasters
Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?
12%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
0
comments
100
forecasters
Will diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and China on nuclear risk reduction increase in 2025?
35%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
0
comments
98
forecasters
Will the Trump administration attempt to withdraw from key international arms control agreements in 2025?
20%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
0
comments
97
forecasters
Will at least two of the United States, Russia or China mutually agree to decrease their nuclear stockpiles before 2026?
15%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
5
comments
8
forecasters
When will a satellite be equipped with a nuclear weapon?
Current estimate
Jan 2061
0
comments
By 2030-12-31, will the PRC seek control of TSMC's Taiwan ops (direct or indirect)?
8
comments
61
forecasters
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before December 16, 2025?
3%
chance
2%
this week
9
comments
61
forecasters
Will the Cambodia-Thailand conflict result in ⩾20 deaths between October 1 and December 15, 2025?
13%
chance
3%
this week
2
comments
52
forecasters
Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?
14%
chance
6%
this week
87
comments
84
forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 9.10% on 2025-09-27 for the Metaculus question "Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?"?
result
No
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