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0 comments
101 forecasters

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?

12%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
100 forecasters

Will diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and China on nuclear risk reduction increase in 2025?

35%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
98 forecasters

Will the Trump administration attempt to withdraw from key international arms control agreements in 2025?

20%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
97 forecasters

Will at least two of the United States, Russia or China mutually agree to decrease their nuclear stockpiles before 2026?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

5 comments
8 forecasters

When will a satellite be equipped with a nuclear weapon?

Current estimate
Jan 2061
0 comments

By 2030-12-31, will the PRC seek control of TSMC's Taiwan ops (direct or indirect)?

8 comments
61 forecasters

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before December 16, 2025?

3%chance
2% this week
9 comments
61 forecasters

Will the Cambodia-Thailand conflict result in ⩾20 deaths between October 1 and December 15, 2025?

13%chance
3% this week
2 comments
52 forecasters

Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?

14%chance
6% this week
87 comments
84 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 9.10% on 2025-09-27 for the Metaculus question "Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?"?

resultNo