Question Feed | Metaculus

Topics

❓

How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?

Current estimate

89.7 cases

44 comments

423 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

25%chance

5% this week

23 comments

81 forecasters

Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?

1.5%chance

1.3% this week

20 comments

288 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

25%chance

13 comments

3 forecasters

How many wild polio cases will be detected by the World Health Organization in the following years?

condition

Will USDA license HPAI H5 vax in dairy cows by July 1, 2025?

How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?

124

Resolved:Annulled

How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?

144

13 13 comments

17 forecasters

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

4 comments

13 forecasters

How many deaths from Tuberculosis will occur globally in the following years?

2 comments

56 forecasters

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

62%chance

3 comments

59 forecasters

What will be the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease in the following years?

36 comments

206 forecasters

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

4%chance