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Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

2%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

83 forecasters

How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?

Latest estimate

77.2 cases

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

109 forecasters

Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?

14%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

Respiratory Outlook October Update: Forecasts for Flu, COVID-19, RSV, and Measles This Season

0 comments

Respiratory Outlook 2025/26

condition

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

24 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

7 7 comments

24 forecasters

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

36 comments

183 forecasters

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

1%chance

23 comments

50 forecasters

How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?

Current estimate

75.7 cases

condition

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

21 forecasters

if yes

if no

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

0.614

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

0.951

10 10 comments

21 forecasters

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

condition

Will USDA license HPAI H5 vax in dairy cows by July 1, 2025?

How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?

124

Resolved:Annulled

How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?

144

13 13 comments

17 forecasters

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

21 comments

310 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

30%chance