Will the 2026 suspected pneumonic plague outbreak in Russia result in 10 fatalities before 2027?1.9% chance51010 comments3737 forecasters1.9%chance
Will the WHO declare an H5 virus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2028?5% chance177 comments1717 forecasters5%chance
Will AI Cause Human Extinction? Pro Forecasters Land at 7.5%. Our Most Dedicated X-Risk Forecasters Say 22%.322 comments
Ragnarök Question Series: if a global catastrophe caused by some "other risk" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?23.9% chance633 comments3737 forecasters23.9%chance
What will be the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict in the following years?101313 comments7171 forecasters
Will a novel human-infectious pandemic originate in these countries before 2100?11 comment33 forecasters
By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?40% chance612323 comments431431 forecasters40%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?29.2% chance301515 comments285285 forecasters29.2%chance
Will the WHO declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in 2026?result: yes51717 comments763763 forecastersResolvedYes
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?10% chance355252 comments294294 forecasters10%chance
Will WHO declare hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2027?0.1% chance52020 comments119119 forecasters0.1%chance
Pandemic series: a major naturally-originated pandemic by 2026?result: yes434949 comments238238 forecastersResolvedYes
What will be the maximum global single-year death toll attributable to a single pandemic between 2022 to 2121?44.4M deaths (15.3M - 114M)1055 comments2525 forecasters44.4M deaths (15.3M - 114M)
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?25% chance342727 comments231231 forecasters25%chance
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026? → Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?77 comments2525 forecasters
Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2030?18% chance122 comments2020 forecasters18%chance