What will be the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict in the following years?101313 comments7171 forecasters
Will the WHO declare an H5 virus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2028?6% chance122 comments1010 forecasters6%chance
Respiratory Outlook July Update: Screwworm continues US spread as Ebola outbreak surges in DRC40 comments
Will a novel human-infectious pandemic originate in these countries before 2100?11 comment33 forecasters
Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2027?3.6% chance31212 comments2424 forecasters3.6%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?30% chance242323 comments333333 forecasters30%chance
Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2030?20% chance122 comments1919 forecasters20%chance
Will WHO declare hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2027?0.1% chance52020 comments107107 forecasters0.1%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: if a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?7% chance181717 comments198198 forecasters7%chance
Pandemic series: a major naturally-originated pandemic by 2026?result: yes434949 comments238238 forecastersResolvedYes
Will the WHO declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in 2026?result: yes51717 comments763763 forecastersResolvedYes
Will the WHO declare an avian influenza virus in humans a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2030?50% chance1322 comments9595 forecasters50%chance
How many reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025?34.7k deaths (25k - 61.9k)111111 comments4242 forecastersResolved25.519k deaths
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026? → Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?77 comments2525 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?28% chance374444 comments471471 forecasters28%chance