Will WHO declare hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2027?0.4% chance51919 comments106106 forecasters0.4%chance
Pandemic series: a major naturally-originated pandemic by 2026?result: yes434949 comments238238 forecastersResolvedYes
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?30% chance242222 comments329329 forecasters30%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?25% chance364545 comments468468 forecasters25%chance
How many named variants of SARS-COV-2 in its first 10 years?15.5 variants (14 - 20.3)499 comments1818 forecasters15.5 variants (14 - 20.3)
Will the WHO declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in 2026?result: yes51717 comments763763 forecastersResolvedYes
By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?18.9% chance51010 comments5858 forecasters18.9%chance
Respiratory Outlook April Update: Measles Surge Slows as Flu Season Ends with Likely Moderate Severity50 comments
Will an epidemic or agroterrorist attack on US agriculture cause at least $20 billion (2021 USD) in damage by 2040?20% chance20 comments2929 forecasters20%chance
By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?36% chance602323 comments425425 forecasters36%chance
Pandemic series: federal funding of "gain of function research of concern" in 2016-18?result: yes866 comments5959 forecastersResolvedYes
Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?1% chance777 comments199199 forecasters1%chance
How many cattle will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?8967 (2609 - 34.2k)744 comments4242 forecasters8967 (2609 - 34.2k)
What will be the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict in the following years?101212 comments7171 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?10% chance355252 comments296296 forecasters10%chance
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026? → Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?77 comments2525 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?30% chance281515 comments287287 forecasters30%chance
What will be the maximum global single-year death toll attributable to a single pandemic between 2022 to 2121?51.8M deaths (17.1M - 156M)955 comments2525 forecasters51.8M deaths (17.1M - 156M)
Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?7% chance1322 comments166166 forecasters7%chance
Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?5% chance433434 comments301301 forecasters5%chance