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🏆 Market Pulse Challenge 25Q3 Winners and Recap

5
0 comments
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q3
10 comments
6 forecasters

Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2027?

Current estimate
Revealed tomorrow
0 comments
88 forecasters

What will be CDC’s highest assessment of the risk posed by H5 bird flu to the US general public before January 1, 2026?

Low78.1%
Moderate (or medium or equivalent)18.8%
High (or above, such as Very High)3.1%

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
97 forecasters

Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

Platform feature suggestions

113
3.1k3.1k comments
Metaculus Meta
0 comments
94 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 20.00% on 2025-10-22 for the Metaculus question "Will the PEPFAR program cease to exist before January 1, 2026?"?

35%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
107 forecasters

Will an H5 virus receive an "emergence" risk rating categorized as "high" by the US CDC Influenza Risk Assessment Tool before January 1, 2026?

10%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.

1 comment
9 forecasters

What will be the best score on Cybench by December 31st 2025?

Current estimate
82.6%
32 comments
154 forecasters

How many people will die from the new Ebola outbreak before 2026?

Current estimate
47.4 Deaths

Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

16
55 comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index