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$5,000 in Prizes for Comments in the AI Pathways Tournament: Submit Before November 1

8
44 comments
AI Pathways Tournament
2 comments
37 forecasters

When will Metaculus reach 3 million total forecasts? (Prizes inside)

Current estimate
04 Nov 2025

Respiratory Outlook October Update: Forecasts for Flu, COVID-19, RSV, and Measles This Season

4
0 comments
Respiratory Outlook 2025/26

🏆 Market Pulse Challenge 25Q3 Winners and Recap

5
0 comments
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q3
0 comments
88 forecasters

What will be CDC’s highest assessment of the risk posed by H5 bird flu to the US general public before January 1, 2026?

Low78.1%
Moderate (or medium or equivalent)18.8%
High (or above, such as Very High)3.1%

This question is closed for forecasting.

10 comments
8 forecasters

Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2027?

15%chance
5% this week
0 comments
97 forecasters

Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

Platform feature suggestions

113
3.1k3.1k comments
Metaculus Meta

Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

16
66 comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index

Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.

1 comment
9 forecasters

What will be the best score on Cybench by December 31st 2025?

Current estimate
82.6%