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US Democracy Index

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Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires?

Jack Smith (special counsel)result: No

Barack Obamaresult: No

Fani Willis (Fulton Co. DA)result: No

238 comments

223 forecasters

Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day?

J.D. Vanceresult: Yes

Vivek Ramaswamyresult: No

Donald Trump Jr.result: No

20 comments

72 forecasters

Before November 5th, 2024, will Donald Trump successfully appeal any felony conviction in the "hush money" case?

resultNo

45 comments

54 forecasters

What will be the outcome of Donald Trump's New York "hush money" criminal trial?

Trump found guilty of at least one felonyresult: Yes

Trump found guilty of ONLY misdemeanour(s)1%

Mixed: partial acquittal, no convictions1%

14 comments

113 forecasters

Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025?

resultYes

14 comments

63 forecasters

How many additional indictments will have been filed against Donald Trump on May 31, 2024?

community

0.0517

result

81 comments

142 forecasters

Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?

resultNo

81 comments

223 forecasters

Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024?

resultYes

2 comments

50 forecasters

Will senior DOJ leaders override normal procedures to open or accelerate a case against a high-profile presidential opponent or critic in the following years?

26 comments

31 forecasters

When will the federal criminal trial of Donald J. Trump begin? (classified documents case)

Current estimate

>01 Jan 2026