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2 comments
10 forecasters

Will Donald Trump's 100% tariff on China take effect on November 1, 2025?

6%chance
35 comments
37 forecasters

Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires?

Jack Smith (special counsel)result: No
Barack Obamaresult: No
Fani Willis (Fulton Co. DA)result: No
14 comments
63 forecasters

How many additional indictments will have been filed against Donald Trump on May 31, 2024?

community
0.0517
result
0
1 comment
45 forecasters

Will senior DOJ leaders override normal procedures to open or accelerate a case against a high-profile presidential opponent or critic in the following years?

0 comments
150 forecasters

Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?

35%chance
0 comments
166 forecasters

Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?

8%chance
238 comments
223 forecasters

Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day?

J.D. Vanceresult: Yes
Vivek Ramaswamyresult: No
Donald Trump Jr.result: No
26 comments
31 forecasters

When will the federal criminal trial of Donald J. Trump begin? (classified documents case)

Current estimate
>01 Jan 2026
45 comments
54 forecasters

What will be the outcome of Donald Trump's New York "hush money" criminal trial?

Trump found guilty of at least one felonyresult: Yes
Trump found guilty of ONLY misdemeanour(s)1%
Mixed: partial acquittal, no convictions1%
14 comments
113 forecasters

Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025?

resultYes