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Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

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What will be the outcome of Donald J. Trump's defamation lawsuit against the BBC?

3
33 comments
12
12 forecasters

What will be Donald Trump's net approval on December 31, 2026?

-21.2% (-25.3 - -16.4)

11 comment
220
220 forecasters
-21.2%
(-25.3 - -16.4)

Will Donald Trump pardon anyone involved in these cases of political violence during his second term?

2
88 comments
20
20 forecasters

Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires?

6
3535 comments
37
37 forecasters

What will be Donald Trump's net approval on December 31, 2026?

-20.2% (-23.5 - -16.9)

1
44 comments
764
764 forecasters
-20.2%
(-23.5 - -16.9)

Will Donald Trump be impeached for a third time, conditional on control of Congress?

2
11 comment
86
86 forecasters

Will Donald Trump pay his settlement to E. Jean Carroll before January 20, 2029?

6% chance

88 comments
30
30 forecasters
6%chance

Will senior DOJ leaders override normal procedures to open or accelerate a case against a high-profile presidential opponent or critic in the following years?

33 comments
123
123 forecasters

Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day?

21
238238 comments
223
223 forecasters

Will the Trump administration release the Epstein Files before January 20, 2029?

25% chance

33 comments
70
70 forecasters
25%chance

When will the federal criminal trial of Donald J. Trump begin? (classified documents case)

>01 Jan 2026 00:00 (>01 Jan 2026 00:00 - >01 Jan 2026 00:00)

4
2727 comments
32
32 forecasters
ResolvedMore than 01 Jan 2026 00:00

How many members of Trump's second-term Cabinet will be convicted of crimes before 2033?

5 People (1 - 8)

1
33 comments
10
10 forecasters
5 People
(1 - 8)

Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell before Jan. 21, 2029?

15% chance

3
55 comments
32
32 forecasters
15%chance

When will the D.C. federal criminal trial of Donald J. Trump begin? (election subversion case)

>01 Jan 2026 (>01 Jan 2026 - >01 Jan 2026)

4
1818 comments
30
30 forecasters
ResolvedMore than 01 Jan 2026

Will Donald Trump grant executive clemency to more than 2 individuals in June 2025?

result: no

8787 comments
82
82 forecasters
ResolvedNo

[Resolved] What will Donald Trump's approval rating be on these dates according to RCP?

1
33 comments
13
13 forecasters

Before Election Day, will Donald Trump appear on the Call Her Daddy podcast?

result: no

7171 comments
31
31 forecasters
ResolvedNo

Trump Felony Conviction Before Election? โ†’ 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)

4
22 comments
6
6 forecasters

Before November 5th, 2024, will Donald Trump successfully appeal any felony conviction in the "hush money" case?

result: no

8
2020 comments
72
72 forecasters
ResolvedNo

Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?

result: no

13
8181 comments
142
142 forecasters
ResolvedNo

Trump guilty in Manhattan by Election Day โ†’ Trump Felony Conviction Before Election?

2
0 comments
7
7 forecasters

Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial?

result: no

5
3030 comments
101
101 forecasters
ResolvedNo