Will at least 5 non-passengers be linked to the MV Hondius hantavirus outbreak before August 2026?1% chance35151 comments199199 forecasters1%chance
Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?result: yes29221221 comments357357 forecastersResolvedYes
Will the United States attack Venezuela in December 2025 or January 2026?result: yes33030 comments148148 forecastersResolvedYes
Will there be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030?18% chance56201201 comments2.5k2.5k forecasters18%chance
Will a Max show win the 2025 GLAAD Media Award for Outstanding Comedy Series?result: yes9393 comments3737 forecastersResolvedYes
Will at least one 2025 WNBA semifinal series end in a sweep (3-0)result: no0 comments1313 forecastersResolvedNo
Which week in late 2023 will have the highest percent of medical visits for Influenza-like Illness in Virginia?51.2 (50.8 - 51.9)277 comments2424 forecasters51.2 (50.8 - 51.9)
Will the question asking whether Scott will mention it on Astral Codex Ten resolve ambiguously?result: no62424 comments5050 forecastersResolvedNo
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due "other risks"?20% chance399 comments3333 forecasters20%chance
If tested, would GPT-3 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 4th graders?26% chance307777 comments9494 forecastersAmbiguous