If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?25% chance262626 comments340340 forecasters25%chance
Will at least one 2025 WNBA semifinal series end in a sweep (3-0)result: no0 comments1313 forecastersResolvedNo
Will a Max show win the 2025 GLAAD Media Award for Outstanding Comedy Series?result: yes9393 comments3737 forecastersResolvedYes
Which week in late 2023 will have the highest percent of medical visits for Influenza-like Illness in Virginia?51.2 (50.8 - 51.9)277 comments2424 forecastersResolved52
Will the question asking whether Scott will mention it on Astral Codex Ten resolve ambiguously?result: no62424 comments5050 forecastersResolvedNo
Will there be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030?18% chance56201201 comments2.5k2.5k forecasters18%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due "other risks"?20% chance399 comments3232 forecasters20%chance
If tested, would GPT-3 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 4th graders?26% chance307777 comments9494 forecastersAmbiguous