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33
comments
176
forecasters
Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will Psilocybin be a clinically approved treatment for end-of-life anxiety by 2027?
63.9%
chance
7
comments
44
forecasters
How many US states will decriminalize psilocybin on January 1, 2027?
Current estimate
5.53 states
4
comments
204
forecasters
Will the next step for the medical approval of psychedelics for mental health be taken in the US in 2025?
5%
chance
36
comments
159
forecasters
Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022?
result
Yes
4
comments
56
forecasters
Will Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036?
70%
chance
3
comments
13
forecasters
What will be the number of drug overdose deaths in the United States in the following years?
2026
122k
2028
120k
Scott Alexander's 2022 Predictions
15
0
comments
2022 Scott Alexander predictions
16
comments
30
forecasters
How many countries will, at least in some form, decriminalize possession of all Schedule I drugs for personal use by 2070?
Current estimate
59.6 countries