Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will Psilocybin be a clinically approved treatment for end-of-life anxiety by 2027?40% chance253333 comments183183 forecasters40%chance
Will the next step for the medical approval of psychedelics for mental health be taken in the US in 2025?result: no99 comments177177 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the next step for the medical approval of psychedelics for mental health be taken in the US in 2025?result: no9696 comments9999 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the FDA approve a psilocybin treatment during 2026?20% chance366 comments756756 forecasters20%chance
Will marijuana be rescheduled at the federal level in the US before 2030?90% chance344 comments2020 forecasters90%chance
Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022?result: yes183636 comments159159 forecastersResolvedYes
Will Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036?75% chance644 comments5757 forecasters75%chance
How many US states will decriminalize psilocybin on January 1, 2027?4.41 states (2.89 - 9.79)1177 comments4545 forecasters4.41 states (2.89 - 9.79)
What will be the number of drug overdose deaths in the United States in the following years?333 comments1616 forecasters
How many countries will, at least in some form, decriminalize possession of all Schedule I drugs for personal use by 2070?58.9 countries (31.1 - 81.4)81616 comments3030 forecasters58.9 countries (31.1 - 81.4)